‘A METHOD OF ANALYZING OFFENSIVE EFFECIFNCY

Pierce Yorks, University of California
at Los Angeles

It is, of course, trite to suy that the cardinal aim of
basketball offensive strategy is to work the ball in for short shots,
while at the same time forcing the opponents to take the_ long ones.
This, of course, is premised upon the obvious fact that short shots
are easier to make. In practice, however, we frequently find that the
opvonents are quite as diligent in working for the short ones as we
are, while at the same time both their defense and ours seem to resent
very strongly all attempts to work the ball in for close shots. The
results is that in the average contest both teams take short shots,
medium shots and, to a lesser extent, long ones. One team may outshoot
the other as a matter of mere percentuge of shots taken, but still
lose because the opposition has more and better shots. On the other
hand, all of us have suffered from the efforts of "hot" teams who
salted the game away despite the superior and more numerous shots
which our boys failed to realize upon.

If consideration be given to situations of this sort, it
becomes obvious that any anulysis of offensive efficiency must in
some way correlate the number and the relative location of the shots
taken with the percentage of goals made therefron. The following
suggestions along this line are offered for what they are worth:

1. WEIGHING THE SHOTS TAKEN. For the same reason that all
teams endeavor to work the ball in for short shots, it is clear that
the mere number of shots taken is not in itself a definite criterion
of offensive efficiency. For this reason different values or weights
must be assigned to the shots attempted, dependent unon the ieeation
of the shooter with regard to the basket at the time a shot is taken.
A simple method of accomplishing this is to designate three zones in
the chart book; Zone 1 being included within a virtual semicircle of
six feet radius measured froma point directly beneath the center of
the basket and closed by the end line; Zone 2 being included within
a semicircle tangent with the outer edge of the foul circle and
closed by the end line; while Zone 3 constitutes the remainder of the
offensive area. Shots taken in Zone 1, irrespective of whether they
are made or missed and including tir and follow shots, are awarded an
arbitrary weight or value of 3; Zone 2 shots a value of 2; and Zone 3
shots a value of l. These are added and the total value or weight of
all shots taken during the game by each team is thus obtained.

2. PERCENTAGE OF SHOTS MADE. This is, of course, obtained
by dividing the number of field goals made by the total number of
shots taken, irrespective of their location. The customary practice ,
so far as keeping the chart book is concerned, is to note upon it the
number of the player taking each shot and the location of the player
at the time, circling the number when the shot results in a field goal
being made.

3. CORRELATING THE WEIGHTS AND PERCENTAGES, So far we
have discussed the weights and the percentages wholly without relation
to each other. The weights represent the results of the offensive
system or of individual cleverness or both in obtaining proximity to
the basket. The percentage represents shooting ability with or with-
out cleverness in scoring when and if closely guarded. Fach element,
however, plays its part in the general efficiency of the offense and
hence each should be given due credit. This is best accomplished by
applying the percentage of shots made (the game-criterion of shooting
ability) to the weight of the shots taken (the game-criterion of man-
euvering ability) a matter of simple multiplication. Thus Team A
shoots .200 and has a weight of 100. Its offensive efficiency is
therefore, eliminating the decimals, 20 units. Team B shoots .150 and
has a weight of 150. Its offensive efficiency is therefore °2.5, or
counting .5 or more as a whole unit, 23.

This system of analysis as applied to trelve game of the