UNIVERSITY DAILY KANSAN
Thursday, January 19, 1995
7A
Chechnya's fate now in Moscow's hands
By Sergel Shargorodosky Associated Press Writer
MOSCOW — Thousands are dead, hundreds of thousands are homeless, the economic toll is tremendous and Russia's image as an aspiring democracy seems tarnished.
So why the persistence?
The answer lies in the Russian leaders' belief that they had no choice but to invade.
Even with the expected fall of Grozny, Moscow's battle against Chechen separatists threatens to become a protracted guerrilla affair.
Chechnya was a thorn in Russia's side in the volatile Caucasus Mountains — a string of republics stretching from the Caspian to the Black Sea and bordering on Azerbaijan and Georgia.
If not for Chechnya, Moscow could claim to firmly control the region.
Ithad peacekeepers in Georgia, border guards in Armenia and Interior Ministry troops across the northern Caucasus in Russia itself.
Chechyna had prized oil deposits and refineries, and was seen as the key to controlling the flow of oil from Azerbaijan, which signed a multibillion dollar oil deal with Western companies in 1994.
Did all that justify a war? The likely answer is no.
But Yeltsin's aides believed Chechen President Dzhokhar
ANALYSIS
Dudayev's regime would fall once the opposition, an assortment of regional leaders, clan heads and politicians, united and proclaimed itself in power.
When that failed last year, Russia tacitly gave the opposition weapons and tank crews. But an ill-prepared attack on Grozny Nov. 26 ended in a fiasco.
That left Moscow with several choices: continue military support of the weak opposition and hope for the best; line the border with troops and risk an armed confrontation; leave it alone; or invade.
The advisers surrounding Yeltsin recommended the military option, and the president authorized the use of force.
Why? All other alternatives appeared to lead nowhere.
Members of Yeltsin's Security Council advocate the use of force. They include Defense Minister Pavel Grachev, Interior Minister Viktor Yerin, and counterintelligence chief Sergei Stepashin, a group that has been called "the party of war."
Yeltsin himself showed a penchant for violence in October 1993, when he ordered the army to crush hard-liners in the Russian parliament.
"The party of war ... proved to be stronger than everybody else," said a Yeltsin adviser, Emil Payin.
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