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University Daily Kansan
Friday, Nov. 2, 1962
Cuban Setback Probably Won't Hurt Khrushchev
By Henry Shapiro United Press International
(Editor's Note: What will be the consequences in the Soviet Union of the Cuban crisis? Specifically, is there any way that a U.S.-occupied Kbrushichesy himself may be in danger? These subjects are discussed in the following dispatch by the long-time bureaucrat at the U.S. international bureau in Moscow who is presently on leave in the United States.)
What may result is a thorough reappraisal of the international situation leading toward a more moderate and realistic foreign policy with Nikita Khrushchev firmly in control of Soviet destinies.
The Kremlin policy makers may be expected to take the Cuban setback in stride and avoid drastic domestic shakeups.
SOVIET PROPAGANDA is already busily snatching victory from the jaws of defeat and building up Khrushchev as the man whose caution and restraint saved the world from nuclear holocaust. The Kremlin can still hopefully boast of retaining a foothold in the Caribbean which it did not have a few years ago and can point with satisfaction to President Kennedy's pledge that Cuba will not be invaded if Soviet missiles are removed.
Western speculation that Khrushchev's position as supreme leader has or will be weakened following the Cuban fiasco is based on at least two false assumptions. These are:
- Top Soviet leadership is rife with antagonistic elements and is at the mercy of strong pressures, particularly from the military.
- Cuban policy was exclusively of Khrushchev's own making and that his future career was staked on its success.
All available evidence points to the fact that although Khrushchev is the dominating figure in the Soviet hierarchy, he still acts very much like a board chairman and executes policy drafted by the 15-man Presidium and approved by the Central Committee of the Communist Party.
Since the expulsion of the oldguard Molotov group in 1957, the Presidium has been made up entirely of Khrushchev supporters, who can rise and fall only with Khrushchev. And at least two-thirds of the present Central Committee elected through October, 1962, consists of virtually hand-picked men who owe their positions to Khrushchev.
UNLIKE THE despotic Stalin, Khrushhev rules with the advice and consent of the Presidium and the Central Committee. There is evidence that they frequently consult the leaders of other influential groups, such as the armed forces, scientists, trade unions and even foreign Communist leaders.
All instruments of power, including the Security Police, which once enjoyed autonomous influence, and the armed forces, are controlled by the Central Committee.
Americans and others now are in the eye of the Cuban hurricane. Nikita Khrushchev has backtracked from a U.S. show of force. Backtracked, that is, with words. Deeds were still to come as the world entered the second week of the crisis.
Castro May Move to Salvage Ego
By Lyle C. Wilson United Press International
Khrushchev's deeds more often than not fail to match his words. And, even if Russian missiles and bases are removed, the problem of Fidel Castro and Communist Cuba will still remain.
PRESIDENT Kennedy's guidelines for dealing with Castro were laid down in early September. There is no evidence so far that Castro was listening.
Kennedy said the United States would be compelled to act under certain specific conditions. These were:
- Any effort by Castro to export his aggressive purposes by force or threat of force.
- Organization in Cuba of a combat force from any Soviet bloc nation.
- Establishment of a Russian military base in Cuba.
- Violation of the 1934 treaty relating to the Guantanamo Naval Base.
- Location in Cuba of offensive ground-to-ground missiles.
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- Establishment of any other significant offensive capability in control either of Cubans or Russians.
Khrushehvel tested Kennedy on missiles and soon seemed to change his mind. At the moment of Khrushchev's backtrack, however, Castro was probing in another area. One sixth of Venezuela's oil production was knocked out last weekend by saboteurs.
THE SABOTEURS are alleged to have acted on radio orders from Cuba and there is some reason to believe that Castro has ordered a
general campaign of terrorism in Latin America. He is a neighbor to the uneasy island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Both governments are frail establishments, a real temptation to Castro to move in.
Castro's ego needs mending. He needs a whoop-la triumph of some kind to repair his bully boy public image at home. That is why he may prove to be a more dangerous neighbor, in fact, minus his missiles than when he had them cocked and ready. Now he may feel compelled to strike.
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