House Elections Seen as Key to Change in Congress
(Editor's Note: This is the first of a series of dispatches by UPI political writers previewing the Nov. 6 elections. It deals with the crucial race for the House — a race that largely will determine the fate of the Kennedy legislative program for the next two years.
WASHINGTON — (UPI) — President Kennedy's hopes for a more liberal Congress will be riding election day on the outcome of about 100 little-publicized contests for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Although nationally-known senatorial and gubernatorial candidates probably will claim the spotlight, Kennedy's legislative lieutenants will be watching results of house races between candidates who are relatively unknown outside their own districts.
FOR TWO YEARS the House has imposed the brake on the New Frontier's legislative proposals. With the election of a liberal-tinged Democratic Senate almost certain, the big question is whether the House in the new 88th Congress will be more conservative, less conservative or remain at approximately its present balance.
By Vincent J. Burke
Most of the 435 House seats at stake are relatively "safe" for the party now holding them. The outcome will depend on elections in about 100 doubtful, or swing districts.
During the last two years the party lineup in the House has been:
Democrats - 206.
Republicans - 174.
For the White House, however, the significant figures are those on the voting and those have been close.
THE PARTY in power almost always loses House seats in mid-term Congressional elections. Not since 1934 has the president's party gained seats in such elections. The average result in mid-term elections dating back to 1912 has been a loss of 39 seats for the president's party.
In the new Congress which convenes on Jan. 9, there will be two fewer seats. The House membership, boosted temporarily to 437 with the granting of statehood to Hawaii and Alaska, reverts to its permanent size of 435.
Republican leaders publicly claim they have a good chance of winning the 44 seats they need to control the House. But their private assessment of prospective gains falls far short of that figure.
(Kennedy has publicly expressed hope of upsetting the historical trend
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A Republican gain of 20 or more House seats would unquestionably give GOP leaders and conservative Southern Democrats the whiphand. Conceivably, a GOP gain of as few as 10 seats could significantly boost the power of the conservative bloc.
by picking up 5 or 10 new Democratic seats. Privately, Democratic strategists would be happy to hold their losses to 5 seats.
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THE SIGNIFICANT fact is that Republicans do not have to win party control of the House for conservatives to gain a headlock on Kennedy's legislative program.
On the other hand, should the election result in little or no net shift in the party line-up, administration forces probably would be stronger in the House in 1963 and 1964 than they were during the past two years.
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THIS IS BECAUSE the Democrats which the South elects this year almost certainly will include more Kennedy supporters and fewer Kennedy foes. In a few scattered primary elections, conservative Democratic incumbents were defeated this year by moderate or liberal Southerners. In addition, reapportionment of House seats among states will result in some "liberalizing" of the Democratic party's Southern wing in the House.
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The House seats at stake this year have been reapportioned to reflect relative changes in state population during the 1950's.
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THE 11 STATES of the old Southern confederacy wound up with the same number of seats. But some of these in conservative-rural areas with more liberal constituencies, including Tampa, Fla., and the Miami area.
In the North as well as the South the result of reapportionment will be to give greater voice in the House to city-suburban voters and a smaller voice to the nation's declining farm population.
A good many veterans decided to retire rather than seek re-election in newly-mapped districts. They included Reps. John Taber, R-N.Y., dean of Congressional Republicans with 40 years service, and Brent Spence, D-Ky., chairman of the House Banking committee, at 87, is the oldest man in Congress.
California with a gain of eight seats will elect 38 representatives to the House, more than any state except New York with 41. Florida gained four seats. Seven other states each gained one seat. Sixteen states lost seats.
Robin T. M. Fraser, assistant professor of chemistry, will conduct an analytical - inorganic - physical colloquium at 3:30 p.m. Wednesday in 122 Malott Hall.
THE RE-SHUFFLING of seats has assured a big turnover in House membership. It caused collisions between incumbent - vs. - incumbent battles in the primaries and similar contests will unseat seven more on Nov. 6.
The subject will be "Bridging Groups in Redox Reactions."
Fraser to Give Chemistry Talk
Monday, Oct. 29, 1962 University Daily Kansan Page 9
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