6
Wednesday, March 31, 1993
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Hydrologist bases weather predictions on sun's intensity
Last night's thunderstorm may have dampened the evening, but it also saved Charles Perry's reputation.
Perry, a hydrologist at the United States Geological Survey office, 4821 Quail Crest, has been predicting that this spring would be plagued by thunderstorms and highly variable temperatures. He also said that this would be a cold, wet winter for the Midwest, the Northwest and the East Coast.
Renee Knoeber / KANSAN
By Traci Carl Special to the Kansan
And with mud slides in Southern California in December, several unusually heavy snowstorms in the Midwest and the hurricane-like snowstorm on the East Coast in March, Perry has all the bad weather anybody could hope for to back up his predictions.
Perry, who has a doctorate in meteorology and has taught atmospheric science classes at KU, bases his predictions on a theory of his own: That the sun's intensity controls the weather by heating ocean currents.
The sun's intensity from year to year is not strong enough to affect the earth's temperature directly, he said. It affects the ocean temperature, which creates precipitation and then lower temperatures because the sun's heat is stored more effectively in the ocean than in land.
Bad weather a good sign for theory
"It's probably the sun driving the whole weather system," Perry said.
Four years ago, the sun heated the Pacific Ocean with increased intensity. These warm currents took about four years to reach the California coast. Now that they have, Perry said, they are like a pot of hot water on a stove.
"The tropics pick up most of the heat, and most of the tropics is ocean," Perry said.
According to Perry's theory, this spring in Kansas will continue to be wet, with frequent thunderstorms and highly variable temperatures.
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Charles Perry, a hydrologist at the United States Geological Survey office, said he believed the weather depended on the heating of ocean currents.
"We don't really have that many measurements on the redistribution of the heat in the ocean on a whole," he said. "We know what the surface currents are."
“There's a lot of warm water out there," Perry said. "I would expect a lot of severe weather this spring."
But other scientists aren't getting their raincoats out yet, he said. Perry said that his theory was still just a theory and, although he will publish a paper in the April issue of World Mete-
It is also hard to pinpoint one single factor that causes weather because there are so many different theories and factors, Braten said. This year, scientists have blamed the eruption of the volcano in volcanic Mount Aeolius and El Niño on the current off the coast of Peru, he said. But even these effects are unclear.
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Global temperature increased dramatically from the early 1900s to the 1940s, dropped until the 1970s and have steadily increased since 1980.
"How they've actually affected the weather is anybody's guess," Braaten said.
The sun's intensity has increased and decreased with this temperature trend. Perry said that indicates that the amount of heat it receives with the increase in global temperature.
"The only way you can prove it is to put some physics with it," Braaten said.
Perry still is willing to put his reputation on the line with new predictions.
Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea take about two years to reach the United States, Perry said, and the snow in Kansas this winter was caused by a 1991 peak in the sun's heat cycle. The wet weather that broke California's drought was caused by a 1989 peak.
Little is known about the ocean's heat distribution, he said.
But Perry has more examples than this year's weather to back up his theory.
Dave Braaten, assistant professor of atmospheric science, said that Perry had been successful in finding statistical evidence to support his theory, but he also needed calculations to support the statistical evidence.
Perry can even find data to support the idea that the sun's activity affected weather thousands of years ago.
The sun spots are becoming fewer and Perry predicts dry, hot conditions on the West Coast for 1996. He said there may even be a drought.
"It's really the atmosphere and where it's turning that affects our air temperature," Perry said.
The resulting increase in precipitation keeps the weather cooler, he said. The sun's intensity varies from year to year, but not enough to notice directly.
Some scientists may say he's lucky, but Perry is going to continue to stake his reputation on his theory.
If the sun is cooler, there is less precipitation and drier weather. Perry
orological Association, many scientists were still skeptical.
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"The hotter the water is, the more steam there is," Perry said. "Think of the heat that comes out."
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"The sun is affecting climates at all time scales," Perry said.
Perry uses sumps, visible cool spots on the sun, to judge the sun's intensity. Scientists know that the more spots on the sun, the hotter it is, but they cannot explain why, he said.
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"But if I continue to be lucky, year after year, they'll have to say, 'Hey, maybe this guy's got something,' " Perry said.
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REMEMBER1993...
BE A PART OF HISTORY IN THE MAKING!
The Kansas and Burge Unions will be placing a 1993 Time Capsule in the cornerstone of the Kansas Union in October 1993 dedicated to the current KU students in appreciation for funding the renovation. It will be scheduled to be opened in the year 2050. We need your suggestions for items to be placed in the time capsule!
GUIDELINES:
Items should represent a facet of current KU student life. All items need to fit into a 12" long x 12" diameter capsule. Items should be in good taste
Please write your suggestions in the space provided:
PHONE #:
NAME:
KUID:___
CLASS: Freshman Sophomore Junior Senior Grad Faculty Staff Alum
SUGGESTIONS & REASONS WHY:
Other___
Return to the SUA Office, Level 4 of the Kansas Union by 5:00 p.m. on Wednesday, April 14, 1993