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University Daily Kansan Wednesday, Nov. 20, 1963
Survey Predicts Bright Conservative Future
Bv Lyle C. Wilson
(UPI)—The charts, graphs and statistics to justify Sen. Barry Gold-water's faith in the conservative future of the Republican party have been compiled in persuasive form by the Dunn Survey of McLean, Virginia.
The Dunn Survey is Roger C. Dunn, a sharp pencil analyst of election returns. Dunn is committed to the theory that the Republican party is hexed by a death-wish compulsion to ape the Democrats in the field of welfare statism.
BUT DUNN HAS a respectable record of vote analysis. So until some opponent proves Dunn to be wrong, his charts and graphs merit examination by politicians on the chance that he may be right. What Dunn does to modern political ideas is plenty. He scoffs at the idea that welfare statism and federal hand-outs have won elections for the Democratic party.
The Republican party has done best since 1832. Dunn argues, when its own policies have been fixed by congressional and local leaders. The national or presidential year leadership of the Republican party tends to drift with the welfare state Democrats, Dunn reports, and is penalized for that by the voters. The congressional and local leaders tend to resist this me-too drift.
But the Eisenhower administration left the Republican party weak and almost nerveless, a loser in 1960.
Dwight D. Eisenhower's personal prestige and popularity overrode all other considerations in the presidential elections of 1952 and 1956.
The high point for Republican congressional and local leadership was in 1946 when the GOP won control of the 80th Congress. In every section outside the South, the Republicans got 50 per cent or more of the vote cast for Congress; from just more than 50 per cent of the vote in the mountain states to nearly 60 per cent in the west north central states. These latter states are
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri,
Nebraska, North Dakota and South
Dakota. Next best showing was
about 57 per cent in the east north
central states: Illinois, Indiana,
Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.
AFTER THOMAS E. DEWEY'S losing 1948 campaign and Ike's winning efforts in 1952 and 1956, the Republican congressional vote was in 1960 better than 50 per cent only in the east central and west north central state. All other sections reported 50 per cent or less. Under Eisenhower's modern Republican administration, the Republican congressional vote trend was sharply down. In the 1962 congressional election the Republican vote for 35 northern states came back to an even 50 per cent.
FDR's 27.5 million votes in 1936 was not equalled again until 1960 when it was exceeded by John F.
Kennedy's 34 million, plus. The point is that the Democratic gain came after two terms of Ike. The implication is that a hard-nosed conservative campaign by Republican Richard M. Nixon would have put him in the White House.
If Sen. Goldwater needs a stiffener for his conservative backbone, the Dunn survey report is for him.
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