PAGE FOUR
UNIVERSITY DAILY KANSAN, LAWRENCE. KANSAS
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 1949
Truman Is 'Chief Forecaster As Pollsters Admit Mistake
By UNITED PRESS
As he lugged the last empty champagne bottle out of Democratic headquarters in New York's Biltmore hotel, the janitor said for the 17th time. "My gosh, Truman won."
The professional poll takers talked at more length. But what they said boiled down to "we were wrong"
Other people said it in other words. Gov. Thomas E. Dewey said he was "just as surprised as anybody else." Margaret Truman said she and her mother were "simply overwhelmed." $^4$
Not even the professional Democrats had got it just right. National chairman J. Howard McGrath had indicated he doubted Mr. Truman could win unless 55,000,000 to 60,-000,000 votes were cast. The actual total was nearer 47,000,000 and the president won anyway.
Only Mr. Truman had been right all the way. He had said over and over again that he would win. But Mr. Truman wasn't giving away any secrets about his forecasting methods. He just said he was "happy, very happy" that he'd been right. He didn't seem a bit surprised.
A lot of people were trying hard to explain two things: (1) Why the president won, and (2) why none of the dopesters thought he would.
Professional pollsters George H. Gallup and Elmo Roper made long statements. Gallup had said Dewey would win with 49.5 per cent of the popular vote. Mr. Truman getting 44.5. Roper's forecast was 52.2 per cent for Dewey and 37.1 for the president. What happened was that Mr. Truman got about 49.9 per cent and Dewey 45.8.
Dr. Gallup's explanation was: "It was the kind of close election that happens once in a generation and is a nightmare to poll-takers."
Roper nominated Mr. Truman for dean of forecasters. The president, he said, turned out "to be a far better predictor than the professional pollsters, politicians and pundits." As for Roper:
"I could not have been more wrong. The thing that bothers me most is that at this moment I don't know why I was wrong. But I certainly propose to find out."
Roper and some others thought perhaps organized labor, fighting against the Taft-Hartley act which Mr. Truman would repeal, had "turned the tables."
Fire Ends Town's Troubles
Big Piney, Wyo.—(UP)—A fire at Big Piney has eliminated both a cause and result of headaches to city officials. A raging fire destroyed the little county seat's jail the other day. Most of the jail's business was handling drunks. The fire also destroyed about 90 per cent of Big Piney's whiskey.
Pine needles that brown and drop in fall are three years old. Those one or two years old do not drop except during a severe drought, then the two-year-old needles fall off first.
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Ballet Russe Comes To Hoch Monday
The Ballet Russe de Monte Carlo, a company of 75 dancers and musicians, will appear at 8:20 p.m. Monday, Nov. 8, in Hoch auditorium. It will be the second regular feature of the University Concert course.
Four full-length ballets will be presented, "Mozartiana," "Cirque de Deux," "Pas de Quatre," and "The Blue Danube." They will be performed with costume and scenery and accompanied by a symphony orchestra. Alexandra丹ilova and Frederic Franklin will dance the principal roles.
The Naval Reserve Officers Training Corps Rifle team is firing a match by mail with Rochester university and Illinois university today.
NROTC Rifle Team In Triangular Meet
The unit lost their match with Idaho university last week by a score of 814 to 864.
The teams do not meet for the match. They fire a regular match; the instructor scores them and then they are mailed to the opponent. It is an honor system of scoring, said Lieutenant Bolts, the team coach.
Crystal Clear Vision
Fort Worth. Tex—(UP)—Elsworth Jones knows from experience that windows in the Rock Island Railroad offices are clean. Someone closed an open window. Then Jones heard a siren, and to stick his head out the window to see. Result: one broken window, one slightly cut head.
Father, Two Sons Attend College On GI Bill To Learn Farming
Read the Daily Kansan daily.
Knoxville, Tenn.—(UP)—Joseph Frank Ogleby, 49. Clarksville, Tenn., sacked up and went along with his two sons to college this fall.
Already the professors are telling the boys their Dad is "quite a stimulating pupil."
When Oglesby decided to enroll at the University of Tennessee with his sons, Joseph Jr., and Milton, he took the family to Knoxville in a trailer so they would have living quarters.
Mrs. Oglesby does the cooking and "trailer-keeping" while Dad sits in classes as a freshman with 21-year-old Milton. Both are planning a five-year course leading to masters' degrees in agriculture.
Joseph, Jr., 22, helps Dad with his home work occasionally. He is a sophomore, a year ahead of his father and working toward the same degree.
All three are attending college under the G.I. bill of rights. They all served in the navy.
Oglesby, Sr., served during both World Wars. In 1918 he was an aviation rigger. Last time he was an engineering draftsman with the bureau of ordnance.
Joseph, Jr., served as an aircrewman, Milton as a ship's tailor.
Joseph, Sr., shows his boys the way in extra-curricular activities. He acts as the master of ceremonies for a show broadcast by the university's radio station WIZM. Joe, Jr., and Milton make it a family affair by holding down minor roles in the "Meetin" at Uncle Will's."
After they all graduate, the Oglesbys hope to run a farm together in Montgomery county, Tennessee.
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