THE UNIVERSITY DAILY KANSAN
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2013
QUOTE OF THE DAY
PAGE 9
"In a small way, I feel like we've won the World Series."
Dayton Moore in his postseason press conference evaluating the season
FACT OF THE DAY
The last time the Royals made it to the playoffs was 1985 when they won the World Series.
mlb.com
Q: The 2013 Royals' 86 wins was the most in a season since what year?
TRIVIA OF THE DAY
A: 1989, 92 wins.
mib.com
THE MORNING BREW Breaking down the Royals' future by the numbers
Numbers are becoming law in sports. Major League Baseball is the most statistically wealthy league and the math gurus are beginning to capitalize on the online revolution of databases filled with baseball statistics, which makes information easier to find. This opens the door for the most advanced analysis and comparison — and through this door comes the rising fundamental in sports studies.
Michael Lewis' "Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game" follows the experience of the Oakland A's and the team's use of advanced statistical analysis to produce a more competitive baseball team, despite an inferior revenue stream.
Numbers never lie.
The Kansas City Royals can draw comparisons to the story of the Oakland As. They reside in a small market and have a much more limited payroll than many of their competitors. The Royals were fourth in their division in opening day payroll in 2013. Kansas City, like Oakland, is trying to buck that trend. However, there is an even closer model for the Royals to follow. It's 10 years old and from inside their own division.
Let the earlier similar comparison between the Royals of 2005-2016 and the Minnesota Twins of 1993-2004 begin.
From 1993 to 2000, the Minnesota Twins were an awful franchise. The team averaged just 66 wins per year. They also finished no
Beginning in the 1995 season, Terry Ryan became the general manager of the Twins. After six years of bad baseball, the Twins went 85-77 and finished six games behind the division winner in 2001 — Ryan's seventh year.
This is the bridge that the Royals have not crossed yet: the years of 2014, 2015 and 2016. If the team follows the model they have so perfectly traced so far, an average of 92 wins over the next season will surely get them to the top of the division. Right?
In 2013, the Royals were in postseason contention through the final week of the 162-game season. With a 6-0 loss to Seattle on Sept. 28, they were finally mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The team did this on the backs of a strong September push, but a horrid May likely cost the Royals a better shot.
Here's a look at the Royals' records, win percentage and projected 162-game win total by month:
better than fourth in their division. From 2005 to 2012, the Royals were an equally miserable franchise. Likewise, they finished no better than fourth in any season and averaged a nearly identical 67 wins per season.
Similarly, Dayton Moore has now just finished his seventh year with the Royals. In his first six years as general manager, Moore's teams have left critics calling for his head. Moore continued to preach "The Process," one that he often related to that of these same Minnesota Twins. This season, the Royals won 86 games and finished seven games behind the division winning Detroit Tigers — nearly the exact track of the Twins a decade earlier.
Royals veers into the charted waters of the Twins. In the three seasons following Ryan's seventh year with 85 wins, the Twins won three consecutive American League Central titles and averaged 92 wins a season.
Over the past 11 seasons, the winners of the Central division have averaged 92.64 wins per season. Posting 92 wins would have won the division just five of the 11 years. There is no guarantee as to how the rest of the division performs to help determine the Royals' fate. However, the addition of the second wild-card slot does improve overall playoff chances.
This is where the uncertain future of the
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April: 14 - 10, .583, 95 wins
May: 8 - 20, .286, 46 wins
June: 16 - 11, 593, 96 wins
July: 15 - 10, 600, 97 wins
August: 16 - 15, 516, 84 wins
September: 17 - 10, 629, 102 wins
When put into numerical form, the Royals performance in May was a clear outlier. Altogether, of course, it tallies 86 wins. But if the Royals could have removed May from the equation — and this isn't entirely fair
— they would project to win 94.8 games. Mathematically, this would launch them to top the yearly average of the division winner and they would have accomplished that very goal this year.
The Kansas City Royals are at the pivotal turning point on a beaten path: a trail the Minnesota Twins took to three consecutive division crowns. The numbers are there and are too similar to ignore between the two case studies. Now, the Royals just have to navigate the charted waters.
All that's left to do is play ball.
Moneyball.
Edited by Chas Strobel
Wednesday
This week in athletics
Volleyball Oklahoma 6:30 p.m. Lawrence
Softball
Labette Community College
5 p.m.
Lawrence
Thursday
Friday
Softball
Avila
6 p.m.
Lawrence
Saturday
Soccer
TCU
4 p.m.
Lawrence
Football
TCU
11 a.m.
Fort Worth, Texas
Softball
lowa
1 p.m.
lowa City, Iowa
Sunday
Women's Golf
Diane Thomason Invittational
All Day
Iowa City, Iowa
Men's Golf Crooked Stick Intercollegiate All Day Carmel, Ind.
Volleyball Texas 6:30 p.m. Lawrence
Monday
Tuesday
Men's Golf Crooked Stick Intercollegiate All Day Carmel, Ind.
VOLLEYBALL
BLAIR SHEADE bsheade@kansan.com
Big 12 assist leader McNorton faces Oklahoma
After the win over Baylor on Saturday, Oct. 5, the Jayhawks (13-3) will try to continue their nine-game winning streak and undefeated conference season tonight against Oklahoma (14-3) at the Horeisi Family Athletic Center.
Senior setter Erin McNorton had an impressive performance with 53 assists against the Baylor Bears. The Jayhawks beat the Bears 25-16, 23-25, 25-22, 25-17 to stay perfect in the Big 12.
McNorton, who is part of the 2013 preseason All-Big 12 team, has been the Jayhawks' setter for
two successful seasons now.
The Jayhawks run a 5-1 offense, which means the offense runs around one setter on the floor, compared to a 6-2 offense, which is an offense with two setters. With this in mind, it's impressive how much pressure and influence McNorton holds in the Jayhawk offense as the only setter on the floor. McNorton touches the ball at every point during the game. McNorton is a huge part of the Jayhawks 5-1 offense, which leads the Big 12 with an average of 13.48 assists per game. When McNorton performs well, the Jayhawk offense performs well.
Early this season, McNorton
had a 63-assist game against Bowling Green University. Her performance was her second highest number of assists in one match. Last season, McNorton had her career high in total assists per game: an impressive 67-assist game against Creighton University in five sets.
The layhawks undefeated conference season is because of McNorton's sets. She leads the Big 12 with 760 assists for an average of 12.26 per game. McNorton's number is 223 higher than Iowa State's Jenelle Hudson, who is second in the Big 12 with 537 assists.
Last night McNorton averaged 11 assists per game, though she's
shown improvement with an average of one more assist per game this season. With 14 games left in the season, McNorton is looking to surpass her total of 1,443 assists last season and she's more than halfway there.
hawkeye there.
McNorton will try to add to her total tonight against Oklahoma, which ranks No. 8 in the Big 12 for assists allowed. Oklahoma has allowed 774 assists this season.
Last season, the Oklahoma Sooners were 10-7 in Big 12 play and lost both matches against Kansas.
The Jayhawks swept the Sooners in Lawrence last season and setter McNorton had 49 assists. McNorton had a total of 103 assists.
against Oklahoma last season.
After being swept by Texas, the Sooners beat Iowa State on Saturday for their first Big 12 win of the season. Oklahoma is still looking for its first road Big 12 victory and will try to get it from Kansas, who hasn't lost a Big 12 game at home this season.
Entering tonight's game, the Jayhawks lead the Big 12 conference in hitting percentage, kills, blocks and assists. But, the Jayhawks leading hitter, senior middle blocker Caroline Jarmoc, has been in a slump during Big 12 play. Jarmoc has 23 kills on 58 attempts this season in the Big 12. She has 69 kills on 135 attempts in
non-conference games. During the last two games Jarmoc has had just 13 kills, which is the lowest kill total in a two-game span this season. Jarmoc is looking to bounce back from a slow start to conference play against Oklahoma, which is ranked No. 7 in Big 12 for kills allowed.
The Jayhawks will hope to continue their hot start in the Big 12 tonight at the Horejsi Family Athletic Center at 6:30 p.m.
- Edited by Kayla Overbey
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