TUESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2013 THE UNIVERSITY DAILY KANSAN PAGE 4 opinion TEXT FREE FOR ALL Text your FFA submissions to 785-289-8351 or at kansan.com I think the twins from the shining are on my bus. Color me uncomfortable. I'm sorry, but 'Grease Lightning' just sounds like a brand of lube. It's been three days...why haven't I seen Wiggins yet?? It's the first day of classes and you're wearing a North Carolina jersey? Get out. INTERNATIONAL "Plagiarize intelligently" said my western civ professor You know what Jayhawk Blvd needs? MORE BUSES. Said no one EVER. I just saw Jamari... without Ben. It was weird. Easiest way for us to know you're a freshman? Wear that Class of 2017 shirt. Starting off the new semester making friends with my TA and not knowing it. "And the final will be optional." So far so good! I know it's the first Monday of classes because there are twice as many students in campus than any other Monday the rest of the semester. Came to the conclusion that at least a third of campus must have been skipping daily last year. So many people. stairs I take a moment before every class to catch my breath in the hall so no one knows how winded I am from the stair Roughly 40 percent of my class is playing Candy Crush right now. Gotta love the professors who gratu- tiously swear just to get a laugh from their students. I haven't skipped any of my classes so far, so yeah, I'd say this year's been a success. I'm predicting that I'll burn through my summer job funds within the next three weeks. Probably would have lost some weight had that petition to get Chik-fil-a out of the Underground worked. I really want Snapchat to stop being a thing. Totally forgot how hard it is to sit still for more than ten minutes today. I'm not drunk today. Haven't said that in awhile. What if I just wrote Breaking Bad spoilers in chalk on Wescoe Beach? I'm very tired. Middle ground necessary for ideological, data approaches Making predictions is a fundamental part of life, and growing access to data and technology might improve our prediction-making capabilities — if we take the time to hone our own skills as well. Late last June my friends and I gathered around a television set watching protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square. Over 22 million had signed a petition calling for elections to end then-President Morsi's term. As protests spread, the military issued Morsi an ultimatum: come up with a solution, or the military would end the standoff instead. Even as military helicopters draped in Egyptian flags passed over Tahir, I predicted that the generals would not follow through. Taking responsibility for Egypt's problems seemed like a poor way to win public goodwill, I reasoned. Besides, surely the generals wouldn't want to jeopardize international aid by acting undermocratically. My prediction turned out to be completely false. On July 3, General el-Sisi announced that the president had been removed and the military would oversee the interim government. I resolved to give up on predicting the future of Egyptian politics and stick to strictly observing instead. One obvious but often undervalued lesson is that our prior assumptions about the world can enormously impact our predictive capacities. I held some strong beliefs about the Egyptian military's motivations, even though I hadn't spoken with them or comprehensively examined their public actions. Good forecasters carefully consider the background of a prediction's source before accepting its credibility. For instance, a CEO might tell shareholders that the company's stock will go up after the release of a new product, but those shareholders should still seek out independent verification that the product's market exists before increasing investments. A second possible conclusion is that if I simply had access to By Amanda Gress agress@kansan.com more data and computing power. I could have more accurately predicted the outcome of Egypt's June 30 movement. Satellite imaging could produce a sophisticated estimate of the number of protestors to compare with previous events. The army's structure, the frequency of public statements and the types of equipment deployed could all be collected as data points, producing a model to simulate developments. New modeling approaches might be gaining traction in the social sciences. In a June 2012 TEDx talk entitled "Is life really that complex?" mathematician Dr. Hannah Fry discussed the potential to "use and exploit analogies between our human systems and those of the physical world around us" to better understand societal phenomena. Fry created a mathematical model of the London riots that simulated the dynamics between rioters and police by using analogies between rioters recruiting their friends and sick people spreading a virus. She claims these comparisons enable insight into strategies for preventing future riots. Anyone interested in improving their predictions should read famed statistician Nate Silver's phenomenal new book, "The Signal and the Noise." In "The Signal and the Noise," he warns against substituting easily accessible data for thoughtful analysis about the fundamental assumptions that make up our statistical models. Instead, Silver recommends building our predicting muscles by regularly making forecasts of our own and then determining whether or not they end up being correct. These could be in any area, from data-rich fields like professional sports to murkier ones like Egypt's political future – the trick is to just keep predicting, and determining why we go wrong when we do. For example, we could design a computer program using data from previous Egyptian transitions to predict the outcome of future protests. However, power has only changed hands four times over the past fifty years, so this would poorly account for new developments. We could choose to collect data from different countries or time periods, but that would ignore the nuances of cultural difference and changes over time. Our new approach would instead find a middle ground between ideological and data-driven approaches. By constantly refining our worldview to predict day-to-day developments, we still wouldn't develop the equivalent of a crystal ball - but wed likely improve our understanding along the way. Amanda Gress is a junior from Overland Park, Kan. studying political science and economics. CAMPUS Experiencing college years with open mind, inclusive attitude Dear Freshman self, congratulations, you did it. You survived D congratulations, you did it. You survived public schooling. Now you're about to start college. You've seen all the movies that vividly show the allure of college and how to "fit in." Don't believe it - college isn't a movie. Through a lot of trial and error, I found out that my attitude toward a new school year has greatly changed now that I'm about to graduate. As a freshman, I wish someone had told me how life would really be- all the college movies I watched only left me with a vast knowledge of the bonding powers of alcohol, as demonstrated in "Old School" and "Animal House." Now is my chance to tell you, freshman self, what I wished I knew back then. Major in something you will love to do, not necessarily what will get you the most money. If you're doing something you don't love, then you'll creating negativity for yourself, and that negativity will spill over into your personal life and leave you with regrets. I started out thinking I would major in business and work on Wall Street and drive dream cars. That soon changed as I found out I didn't actually like the business side of things, just the possible fortune to be made. So I quickly switched to journalism and communication studies and soon found the combination I had been searching for. If your first major isn't for you, then don't feel like you have to stick it out. Do some By Bryenn Bierwirth bbierwirth@kansan.com thing you'll love and youll never to work have a day in your life. be to work a day in your job. No regrets - take smart risks and don't be afraid to fail. My most regrettable moments in college came when I didn't seize opportunity. It's a downward spiral that creates doubt and ends in more and more missed opportunities. Use doubt as a motivator. Don't live your life looking back and thinking, "If only I had done this..." But let your failures be life lessons that propel you forward, not hold you back. I often overlooked Lawrence and focused solely on KU. But as I grew older and became more understanding, I learned that KU doesn't encompass all of Lawrence, and I was missing out on what the city had to offer. For instance, I eat on Mass Street all the time and try to stick with local eateries to get the full Lawrence experience. But I never took the time to find out the history behind Lawrence. One of my favorite historic places to go in Lawrence is Tellers (now Merchants Pub & Plate). Not only is the food affordable for date night, but the history behind this place is rich. Tellers, originally a bank, was robbed by Clyde Barrow and two other men in 1932. Barrow was part of the infamous duo of Bonnie and Clyde. 30 between 6.30-7-ish p.m. It's a must-see event - you're essentially reliving history. Every year the historic robbery is reenacted; usually on September Exclusivity is overrated. Inclusion is the key to happiness and success. When you surround yourself with people who think and act like you do, you limit yourself and likely repeat many of the same things (good or bad). Creativity is lost in repetition. But differences and inclusion can generate newer, better ideas and possibilities. So get over your personal tendencies and embrace differences as a way to better yourself and everyone. Lastly, live a legacy. Like a pebble thrown into water, a legacy will reach far beyond its entry point. Always remember those who have impacted you, and how your actions will impact others. Take the time to share your experiences (good or bad) to benefit others. Living a legacy will reach far beyond any successful academic career. What is my legacy? I'm still figuring that out. But I would like to think that it is to better inform students (not just freshmen) about the immense opportunities that Lawrence has to offer, but also to share my experiences and hope someone finds the ability to learn from them and make a difference in the world. Brynn Bierwirt is a senior maping in Journalism and Communications from Overland Park, Kan. CAMPUS CHIRPS BACK What are your words of wisdom/condolences for Billy Ray Cyrus after Miley's VMA performance? Follow us on Twitter @UDK_Opinion. Tweet us your opinions, and we just might publish them. LIFESTYLE Hometown is source of pride, not jokes I wish I could say I don't get it, but I do. Because the lack of pride that Topeka generally has doesn't start with outsiders—it starts with Topeka themselves. When you ask someone who lives in Topeka what they like about the place, they usually laugh. If it's a young person, they talk about how they can't wait to leave, and if it's anyone else they generally just shrug. No one seems to want to stand up and say, "I love Topeka." I'm proud to say that I am from Topeka. No, seriously. No jokes here, just straight up pride. Skeptical? Yeah, you probably should be. Topeka isn't exactly known for its shiny, untarnished reputation. Between being home to the Kansas state government (which could kill any city's positivity), and being home to the Westboro Baptist Church (WBC), Topeka is pretty lacking in pride. People actually laugh sometimes if I introduce myself in class as being from Topeka. In the FFA of the UDK last semester, there were countless jokes made at Topeka's expense. Like it's so funny to live in the state capital. And sure, while I'm not exactly to that point of pride yet, I'm still pretty dang proud. Because you know what? We may have some crazy people living in our overgrown town, but we also have the Equality House. The Equality House, for those who don't know, is a small, brightly painted house that sits in the heart of Topeka. It is also, not at all coincidentally, located directly across the street from the WBC and serves as the headquarters for the non-profit group called Planting for Peace. In their own words, Planting for Peace bought the house "as a symbol of peace and positive change for the LGBTQ community" and is "painted the colors of the pride flag to stand as a visual reminder of our commitment, as global citizens, to this mission." Since its unveiling early this year, the Equality House has received a solidly positive reaction from the Topeka community. This has come in many forms, from the positive comments on the local newspaper website, to the many times I've seen people stop to take a picture of the house. If I mention the house to another Topeka resident, even one that may be pretty tight-lipped about their views on marriage equality, they smile. Because if there's one thing that unites people, it's a common enemy. And for Topeka, that common By Anna Wenner awenner@kansan.com enemy is the WBC. Now over the years there have been many creative counter protests to the WBC all over the country, but my favorites have always been those that took place in Topeka. I mean sure, the rest of the country has to deal with the WBC in its most trying hour, but Topekans, and Kansans in general, deal with the WBC on a daily basis. I pass WBC protests at least once a day during the summer because of where I live in Topeka, and have had to explain to family members and friends that visit why I have such horrible signs held up around my town. I've known kids who attended the WBC, and my church is protested every Palm Sunday. In Topeka the WBC protests are about as personal as you can get. Therefore, when I read that 5-year-old Jayden Sink and her dad had set up a lemonade stand "for peace and love" at the Equality House, I was overjoyed. Inspired by the message of the house (while not really understanding the hate that lay just across the street), Jayden held her stand and was welcomed with open arms by the city of Topeka and thousands of online supporters. Thus far Jayden has had two very successful Lemonade stands, the second of which took place earlier this month and started a worldwide lemonade stand fundraiser with more than 70 stands taking place simultaneously. An incredible number of people turned out to support the stands, and Jayden raised over $25,000. Not bad for a 5 year old. And let's be honest—not bad for Topeka. This is the sort of thing that I want to brag about. I want to return to school this fall and tell my friends that there was a fundraiser at the Equality House that I helped support. I want to tell them that there was a peaceful, creative counter-protest to the WBC right outside their front lawn that a ton of Topekans attended and supported. I want to be proud of Topeka. Because if you can't be proud of where you live, how can you expect anyone else to be proud of it? Anna Wenner is a junior majoring in English from Topeka, Kan. HOW TO SUBMIT A LETTER TO THE EDITOR LETTER GUIDELINES Length: 300 words The submission should include the author's name, grade and hometown. Find our full letter to the editor policy online at kansas.comletters. Send letters to kansanopdesk@gmail.com. Write LETTER TO THE EDITOR in the e-mail subject line. Trover Graft, editor-in-chief editor@kansan.com Allison Lysen, managing editor akohn@kansan.com Dylan Lysen, managing editor dlysen@kansan.com Will Webber, opinion editor www.bebeker@nw.edu Mollie Pointer, business manager mp.interkler@nw.edu Sean Powers, sales manager @cocoa_kitt27 @UDK_Opinion no more kids for you! CONTACT US Brett Akagi, media director & content strategist bakag@kansan.com Jon Schittt, sales and marketing adviser jschittt@kansan.com Sean Powers, sales manager spowers@kansan.com 1 THE EDITORIAL BOARD . Members of the Kansas Editorial Board are Trevor Graft, Allison Kohn, Dylan Lyson, Will Webber, Mollie Pointer and Sean Powers.