THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2002
NEWS
THE UNIVERSITY DAILY KANSAN • 11A
Oil prices to spike if OPEC doesn't increase output
The Associated Press
LONDON (AP) — Higher, more volatile oil prices will loom this winter if OPEC refuses to boost crude production as major importing countries head into the peak heating oil season, an industry report warned yesterday.
A decrease last month in crude exports from Iraq has squeezed supplies and contributed to a dwindling of U.S. inventories. Global demand, meanwhile, is forecast to rise by a robust 1.6 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report.
Markets now face a challenge
similar to that in 1999, when a plunge in oil inventories paved the way for a spike in prices and extreme instability, it said.
"Today's situation is every bit as precarious, given the fragile state of the global economy and the threat of military action against Iraq," the agency said in an unusually pointed message.
However, some respected industry analysts argued that the IEA has overstated this danger.
"We think it's exaggerated," said Leo Drollas, chief economist for the Center for Global Energy Studies. He suggested that the IEA might have "some kind of political agenda" for making such a sharp warning.
The Paris-based IEA is the
energy watchdog agency for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a grouping of rich, oil-importing nations. It is, in effect, a consumer organization.
"So they're sending a message saying, 'We need more oil just in case,'" said Lawrence Eagles, head of commodity research for London brokerage GN1 Ltd.
World oil production slipped to 76.1 million barrels in August, down 580,000 barrels a day from July. At the same time, the IEA raised its estimate of demand growth for the third quarter by 220,000 barrels a day to 76.5 million barrels. Global demand would swell to 78.1 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, it said.
The United States, the IEA's most powerful member and the world's biggest importer of oil, is seen to be leaning on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost production when its members meet in Osaka Japan, on Sept. 19. Washington hopes an increase will help steady energy markets if it goes to war against Iraq.
Traders' concerns about the impact a U.S.-led war against OPEC-member Iraq might have on Middle East oil supplies have already inflated the price of oil. By most estimates, this "war premium" had added $2-4 to the price of each barrel.
Al-Qaida remains dangerous, maybe increasing
The Associated Press
Authorities believe the core of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network has been scattered and weakened by the U.S.-led war on terrorism but officials say the number of sympathizers eager to further the cause of Muslim holy war may be growing a year after the devastating attacks of Sept. 11.
While the strong U.S. military presence in Afghanistan crushed al-Qaida's presence there, U.S. counterterrorism officials say a large number of leaders moved into neighboring Pakistan. Some went into the cities, including bin Laden deputy Abu Zubaydah, who was captured in Faisalabad in March. Others stayed in the remote mountain border area between the two countries. Bin Laden's No. 2, the Egyptian doctor Ayman al-Zawahri, was thought to be in that region as recently as last month. U.S. officials said. The al-Qaida leader's whereabouts are unknown and the U.S. government has said it did not know whether bin Laden is alive or dead.
About a dozen of his chief lieutenants have been killed or captured, but more than half have escaped. Officials have said that between 15 and 20 senior members of the group's leadership were still at large.
Some returned to their home countries of Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon and Morocco. U.S. and foreign intelligence officials have said there was evidence some al-Qaida fugitives have migrated to Hezbollah, the Iranian-supported guerrilla group which targets Israel from
Lebanon.
Foreign intelligence reports received by the United States have placed a few al-Qaida leaders in Iran, but it doesn't appear they are commanding operations. Al-Qaida's most active operational leaders now are believed to be Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, whom officials have identified as the mastermind behind Sept. 11, and Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri. Both men were thought to be operating in Afghanistan or Pakistan.
The Arab satellite station Al-Jazeera said over the weekend that one of its correspondents had interviewed Mohammed and Sept. 11 fugitive Ramzi Binalshib in Pakistan in June. The interview is scheduled to air on Thursday along with a videotape in which the station says bin
Laden can be heard naming several of the Sept. 11 hijackers and discussing the attacks.
The CIA has identified the voice as bin Laden's, a U.S. intelligence official said Wednesday on condition of anonymity. Officials believe the recording wasn't made recently but U.S. intelligence and law enforcement say al-Qaida remains dangerous. The organization is still believed to be able to conduct attacks — there have been at least two since Sept. 11 linked to al-Qaida, including the bombing of an ancient synagogue in Tunisia, and an attack on the U.S. Consulate in Karachi.
Several other plots have been foiled and officials say the war has made it more difficult for al-Qaida to communicate and move money around now that its Afghan base has been wiped out.
China invests in Web-censoring technologies
The Associated Press
SHANGHAI, China - Call it an upgrade of the Great Fire Wall of China.
In the last week and a half, China has begun using more sophisticated, expensive technologies in an effort to keep its growing number of Internet users from viewing undesirable content on the Web.
Starting about Sept.1, users of the U.S.-based search engine Google have found themselves rerouted to a half dozen Chinese-run search engines that are less effective. Google has a feature for finding Chinese-language material online.
A few days ago, users of another American search engine, Altavista.com, also found they were being rerouted to the same heavily censored Chinese sites.
This week, users have begun complaining of an increase in selective blocking—being able to visit Web sites but not being able to see specific articles or other content of a politically sensitive nature.
A common complaint has been that users can access a foreign media site but find only a blank screen when they try to call up an article on, for example, Chinese President Jiang Zemin.
In its usual secretive way, Beijing made no announcement of the new measures and refused to confirm their existence.
But analysts say the measures represent a technological
leap from the earlier "Great Fire Wall" of China, which had clumsily tried to block entire Web sites deemed politically dangerous or pornographic.
"Blocking has been escalated in the last week or so. It's a new high-water mark in Internet controls," said Duncan Clark, managing director of BDA China Ltd., a Beijing-based Internet consulting firm.
Clark and others said the new blocking seemed to be related to a Communist Party Congress scheduled for November — a time when restrictions on speech are often tightened.
This congress is especially sensitive because Jiang is expected to give up his post as secretary-general, beginning a process of handing over power to younger leaders.
Ben Edelman, a Harvard University researcher who has been documenting Chinese online censorship, said China's recent filtering modifications "show in new clarity their dedication to restricting access to content they deem undesirable, inappropriate or simply illegal."
Analysts say they are more interested in whether the controls will be eased after the congress.
Pressure to do so will be intense because of the economic costs, analysts said. Installing and upgrading new censorship software is expensive, and the restrictions lead to less comprehensive searches and bog down all Internet use.