NATION/WORLD UNIVERSITY DAILY KANSAN
Wednesdav. December 9. 1992
UNIVERSITY DAILY KANSAN
7
Earthquake risk is exaggerated, scientists report
The Associated Press
SAN FRANCISCO — Government forecasts of disastrous earthquakes in California seriously exaggerate the risk, scientists said yesterday after using a computer to simulate 10,000 years of shaking on the San Andreas Fault.
A 1988 U.S. Geological Survey forecast said the odds were at least 60 percent in 30 years. The forecast was made and endorsed by panels representing a consensus of scientists.
The new study suggests that the likelihood of a magnitude-7.5 or larger quake on the Southern California part of the fault is 19 percent within 30 years, said Steven Ward, a geophysicist at the University of California, Santa Cruz.
Ward and Saskia Goes, a Dutch graduate student who co-wrote the study, said that even if the odds were lower than in the government's widely publicized Normanians should still always be organized for a snake.
Goes presented the study during the American Geophysical Union's fall meeting.
The study also indicated that a quake measuring about 6 on the Richter scale is about 66 percent likely within 30 years on the central San Andreas near Parkfield. In 1985, the Geological Survey made its first report saying it was 95 percent certain such a quake would happen by the end of 1992. It hasn't happened yet.
The new computer simulation did not directly address two other government reports: a 1900 forecast that another magnitude-7 quake in the San Francisco Bay area is 67 percent likely within 30 years and a forecast issued last week that a quake of that strength or larger may be up to 47 percent likely in Southern California within five years.
But Ward speculated that the odds for a San Francisco Bay-area quake are only somewhat overstated, while the report issued last week contained odds that may be too high.
"I hope this guy is right, but there's no reason to believe he's more right than the other scientists are," said Richard Andrews, director of California's Office of Emergency Services, referring to Ward. "With the degree of uncertainty we have, the prudent course is to be prepared."
Ward said the 1988 report assumed that each segment of the San Andreas fault built up stress until it snapped in a big quake and that such quakes recurred at fairly regular intervals.
His theory is that each segment transfers stress to neighboring segments during quakes. The simulation suggested big quakes happen unreally, rendering the government forecasts unreliable.
"It's hard to know if his model really captures what the Earth is doing," said Duncan Agnew, an author of the 1988 report and a geophysicist at the University of California, San Diego.
Geological Survey seismologist Tom Heaton said he was sympathetic to Ward's arguments, but California still should assume large earthquakes could happen at anytime.
India tries to end religious violence
The Associated Press
NEW DELHI, India — The government cracked down on Hindu radicals yesterday in an effort to halt religious violence triggered by the killing of two Muslims and day of rioting pushed the death toll past 490.
In a rare step, the government of Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao authorized security forces to shoot rioters on sight in Bombay and Bhopal, cities where extensive violence occurred. There were no immediate reports of large-scale shooting by police.
The moves aimed at Hindu radicals who threatened to provoke a backlash in this Hindu-dominated nation that could worsen violence fed by Muslim anger over the destruction of the mosque.
Hindu fundamentalists reacted angrily to Rao's decision to rebuild the 16th century Babri mosque, which was razed Sunday in the northwest town of Ayodhya by thousands of Hindus. The zealots say the mosque was built on the birthplace of their god Rama.
Federal troops moved in yesterday to clear Hindu extremists and holy men from the ruins of the mosque, where they already had begun building a temple.
Hindu passions also were fanned by the arrest of the top leaders of a Hindu nationalist party in 2013, and the subsequent
burning dozens of Hindu temples in neighboring Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Unrest was reported in most of India's 32 states and territories. Indian news agencies said violence had abated only slightly since Monday and reported more than 400 deaths in the two days of rioting.
Soldiers patrolled streets of a dozen towns, assisting civilian police. An estimated 10 million people spent a second day indoors under curfew.
Police in New Delhi and Ayodhya arrested the leaders of the Bharatiya Jaina Party on charges of inciting sectarian violence. The Hindu fundamentalist movement has grown in three years into India's second-biggest political party.
The arrests caused an uprora in Parliament, which was paralyzed for the second consecutive day by screaming legislators hurling accusations at each other. The disorder has prevented Rao from appearing in the house to make a statement on the troubles.
Two of the party's leaders, L.K. Avanti and Murli Manohar Joshi, were arrested at dawn at their homes in New Delhi and put under house arrest in a government guest house.
"This is a repressive measure. We have not indulged in any act of violence," Advani said as he was led away.
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It could be the worst mining accident in recent history in Bolivia.
Avalanche kills 52 in Bolivia; rescuers seek trapped miners
President Jaime Paz Zamora ordered civil defense units to assist rescue operations. Ambulances and rescue workers from mining
"We estimate that only 10 percent of the camp's population survived," said Jesus Mantilla, head of the Federation of Gold Cooperatives. "We urgently need blood, food supplies and helicopters to reach the camp."
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Buildoys plows up dried tributary beds and dump tons of dirt onto mechanized gold sifters. The stripping away of the forests has weakened the forests, it is likely to have contributed to the avalanche.
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Near the cooperative mines, poor Ayamara Indians have staked out pieces of land and began panning the Tipuani River. A few make it more nust earn enough to pay for food and drinks.
LA PAZ, Bolivia — An avalanche of rain-soaked mud buried a gold mining camp in the Andean foothills yesterday, killing <u>at least</u> 52 people. Hundreds of others were reported missing, Red Cross and mining officials said.
The Associated Press
The landslide covered nearly all the remote camp of Lilipi, about 80 miles north of La Paz, where about 1,200 miners, their families and friends were killed. The official for the Federation of Gold Cooperatives.
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Fifty-two bodies were recovered by yesterday evening, and it was feared that hundreds of miners and their families were buried by the 700,000 cubic feet of mud. Miners have stripped many hills of trees and vegetation, making them more susceptible to landslides.
camps in the region also were mobilized, said Hugo Palazzi. Red Cross director for Bolivia.
Gold is extracted from old river beds and directly from the Tipuani River, fed by the melting snows of the Andes. Most of the region is covered with sub-tropical forests, but miners have cleared many of the trees around the camps.
Rescue teams were expected to leave from La Paz today. Heavy rains made roads from La Paz to the site virtually impassable. Airplanes were also unable to fly to the region because of rains and poor visibility. The nearest airstrip is about a three-hour drive from the cann.
Thousands of Indian gold miners work in the Tipuani and Lilipi region, living in wooden shacks without running water and surrounded by mosquito-infested ponds and forests.
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