University Daily Kansan, November 15. 1982
Page 5
Budget
From page one
There would have been some recovery in the national economy*. Entenson said, "Of course it was an extremely disappointing day."
DARWIN DAICOFF, member of the consensus group and KU professor of economics, said agriculture and manufacturing in Kansas had been slowed by the sagging national economy
"Kansas isn't an island and of itself. When the national economy is weaker than anticipated, obviously the Kansas economy will be weaker than anticipated." Daicoff said.
"One thing is clear — employment in the aircraft industry is important for Kansas, and the air industry went down much more this year than anticipated."
RICHARD RYAN, legislative research director and member of the committee, said the current recession had affected Kansas more than recent recessions because this time it hit Kansas industries hard. During recessions in江西，Ryan said, the agriculture and aircraft industries were strong.
In the "Budget in Brief," a supplement explaining the governor's budget policies, one of the assumptions underlying the proposed budget is that the economy would improve by mid-1982.
"The state is not expected to suffer serious hardships because of a weak and sputtering national economy. Neither is it expected to experience a financial crisis of the type that has plagued other states in recent years," the report stated.
THE NEW ESTIMATES made Friday were made under the assumption that the national and Kansas economies would improve early next year, Ryan said.
"I think a solid majority of economic forecasters expect the economy to up."
Ryan said, "It won't be a vigorous bounce-back, but we see less sluggish growth rather than growth."
Ryan said he expected consumer spending to lead the way to recovery in Kansas.
Although the group's estimates were off by their worst margin ever, Ryan said the method of estimating revenues was better then the one used prior to 1874, when the responsibility for estimating revenue for the general fund was in charge of the budget division of the executive branch.
"There was controversy in the 1960s and early 1970s between the legislative and executive branches," Ryan said. "The legislative research committee often asked to second-guess the budget division."
IN 1974, the legislative budget committee recommended the establishment of the forecast group to get a consensus revenue estimate for budgeting.
"Members of the committee thought it would be better if the governor and Legislature worked together."
Ryan said the group, which is not sanctioned under Kansas law, was set up as a compromise between the executive and legislative branches.
EACH NOVEMBER the group meets to make initial predictions for the next fiscal year and to prepare for the following months.
Before the group meets to consider estimates, each forecaster arrives at his own forecasts, using his own model and data, for each source of income. Ryan said.
Emerson said he worked on his estimates during the course of the year. "I worked on it off and on over several months. Of course, you can't make the final estimate until right before it is needed, because you have to wait for the most current numbers to come in."
At the meeting, the group establishes a consensus estimate for each of the 21 sources of income for the general fund. They compare each source of income then reach a consensus, members said.
THE LARGEST revenue sources the group predicts are for personal income tax, corporation income tax, retail sales tax, commuting tax, investment tax, inheritance税 and interest earnings on idle funds.
Emerson said the group usually reached a consensus for all sources in less than a half day.
Ryan said that when the group was formed, it decided that if it could not reach a consensus, the Legislature and the budget department would have to compromise. But it has reached a consensus every year.
The consensus group is not supposed to worry about the expenditures or balance side of the budget.
"The object of the group is to come as close as possible in estimating revenue," he said.
AFTER THE MEETING, the group issues a memo to state agencies explaining the estimates and the assumptions used in reaching those estimates.
Members of the group said they hoped the estimates for next year would be closer, but they offered no guarantees that the economy would improve as expected.
"Theoretically, the economy could get worse." he said. "Although most nationally recognized forecasters expect a recovery, there are no assurances."
The consensus group will meet again to revise estimates during the Legislature's spring
Faculty, administrators brace for budget news
By STEVE CUSICK and DEBORAH BAER Staff Reporters
The official Polish news agency PAP said Saturday Parliament would meet in special session Dec. 13, the first anniversary of military rule, and Western observers saw that as a sign that martial law might be lifted soon.
Although faculty members and administrators say Gov. John Carlin's plan for dealing with the state's revenue problems is "welcome" news, experts argue that another KU will escape future budget reductions.
Mike Swenson, Carlin's assistant press secretary, said the plan might leave the state's university budgets unscathed, and would have the greatest impact on public schools.
But officials said further details about the reductions would not be made known until more information is available.
Dennell Tacha, vice chancellor for academic affairs, said that the latest news from Topkape
"It's very welcome news," she said.
Other faculty members were hesitant to say the University would be spared reductions.
RICHARD COLE, president of the KU chapter of the American Association of University Professors, said, "It looks hopeful, but it's too early to tell with any precision."
Ellen Gold, a member of the University Senate Executive Committee, said, "We're still going on hearsey . . . I think we should wait for a formal statement."
The president of the Classified Senate, Gail Hamilton, said the move should relieve the fears of the campaign.
The prospect of layoffs that has arisen since the budget cutbacks of last summer may have been dimmed somewhat by Carlin's announcement, she said.
ALTHOUGH THE University may not suffer further budget reductions, the spending cutbacks made this summer have been "locked in," said Stanley Koopik, Regents executive officer. Officials had hoped the money would be reinstated.
original resuscitations have had a very detrimental effect on all of the academic units."
Nevertheless, Kopik said he thought Carlin showed a commitment to higher education by his efforts.
Tacha said. "We still are trying to work with the effects of the original rescissions. The
"I'm encouraged by the governor's attitude" Koplik said. "I'm optimistic because more reductions easily could have been instituted."
The superintendent of the local school district said he was not surprised that the public school system might have to shoulder a large share of the reductions.
"We HAD anticipated this possibility," said Carl Knox, superintendent of Lawrence School District 497. "It's quite clear that there will be an aid as far as public schools are concerned."
Poland
Although Knox said he did not know how much the school system would have to reduce its budget, he said that the money would not come in and add percent of the budget earmarked for salaries.
"At this time of the year there's not much you can do with that because commitments were made," he said. "It leaves a relatively small part of the budget."
The remaining 14 percent pays for instructional supplies, staff development, libraries, substitute teachers and office equipment, he said.
Poland's martial law authorities announced unexpectedly last Thursday that Wesla would
with officials of the Roman Catholic Church before returning to Gdansk apparently were
ONE POSSIBILITY for reducing the budget would be to cut from that 14 percent, he said.
From page one
Walesa family members anxiously waited all day Saturday and yesterday for a telephone call from Walesa or authorities explaining his disappearance.
Another option would be to allow a smaller end-of-the-year balance in the district's budget.
Unless the state made up that loss, local property taxpayers would have to pick up the tab
"RUMORS THAT Walesa possibly was meetin
Kopik said that although he was encouraged by Carlin's apparent commitment to higher education, he wanted to make sure that Carlin taught his students almost the first cuts had affected Regents schools.
He will meet with Carlin sometime during the next few weeks, he said.
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