THE UNIVERSITY OF DAYTON KANSAS
RIDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2006
SPORTS
FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE
3B
Texas Tech tops Big 12 forecast
Presence polls in college football are as useless as a cup holder on a jackhammer: the premise sounds necessary for each, but it tends to get messy.
Without a playoff system, preseason polls have a way of setting teams' postseason fates in stone before the players even get to take the field.
I don't advocate preseason polls in college football, but after 11 days of Big 12 previews, I thought I should give my opinion on how the conference would shake down.
Bottom of the barrel (Oklahoma State, Kansas State)
Of Oklahoma State's 22 starters on offense and defense,10 will be sophomores or freshmen.
So unless Boone Pickens, who donated to the university's football program before this season, donates a few million dollars to one of OSU's conference opponents, the Cowboys won't win a Big 12 game in 2006.
If Kansas State coach Ron Prince isn't careful, he will soon be dubbed the "Pied Piper of Manhattan" for his ability to chase players out of town. The already fraying Wildcats will manage one conference win, thanks to Oklahoma State.
As for Missouri, it couldn't even win with quarterback Brad Smith last year.
Better luck next year (lowa State)
This year's Iowa State team might be its best ever. However, the Cyclones will face five opponents in a six-week period that will field better teams.
BY SHAWN SHROYER
KANSAN COLUMNIST
SSHROYER@KANSAN.COM
Iowa State's first test starts with in-state rival and Big 10 powerhouse Iowa on the road.
Then Iowa State gets to play Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas Tech in its first four conference games.
The Cyclones' record not only won't live up to their preseason billing as the second best team in the North, it won't even make them bowl eligible.
Going bowling
(Texas A&M, Baylor,
Colorado)
My next three teams are Texas A&M, Baylor and Colorado. The Aggies and Buffaloes will have new starting quarterbacks this year, but their supporting casts will lead them to bowls. But enough about them; I want to talk about Baylor.
Baylor will make a bowl game in 2006. Listening to coach Guy Morris and talking to players like senior cornerback C.J.Wilson at the Big 12 Media Days, I came away very impressed with their confidence.
That week, Oklahoma State representatives acted like they'd already went 0-12, but Baylor seemed ready to make a Big 12 Championship acceptance speech.
Baylor won't challenge for the South title, but it will take its non-conference opponents off-guard and use that momentum to win a few Big 12 games and reach a bowl game.
Hook'em (Texas)
I'm so sick of hearing about Texas, I've renounced watching SportsCenter.
Listen up, Mack Brown groupies: Texas will not repeat as national champion, as Big 12 champion, as South champion, and it will not beat Oklahoma again this year. Texas will not even be the best team in Texas in 2006.
That's because Vince Young is gone. Without Young last year, Texas would have lost to Ohio State, to Oklahoma State and it wouldn't have had the chance to lose to USC. Without Young this year, Texas loses to Ohio State, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas Tech.
A pair of freshmen can't replace Young's intangibles, but Texas will still compete in the conference.
Brace yourself (Kansas)
Kansas isn't really the fourth-best team in the conference. Five teams are better. However, Kansas only plays two of them: Nebraska and Iowa State. Nebraska will start a new winning streak against Kansas this year, but Iowa State will be ravaged by its early season schedule by the time it plays the Jayhawks.
Although Kansas has won only one of its last 13 road games, that will change this year. In the middle of last season, Kansas went four weeks without playing at home. This year, Kansas doesn't have any back-to-back road trips.
As Kansas proved last season, it takes pride in winning any game at home, so a win on the road against Toledo will give Kansas the confidence it needs for its remaining road games.
Crimson and Scarlet (Oklahoma and Nebraska)
boast a Blackshirt defense that will make Husker Nation proud again. An early season loss at USC and a four-point loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game will be the only blemishes on Nebraska's record.
Coach Mike Leach might have his most inexperienced starting quarterback since 2001, but anyone could play quarterback in Leach's system and put up 4,000 passing yards. Graham Harrell may be a sophomore, but he will be the best quarterback in the South this season.
Classic rivals O k l a h o m a and Nebraska appeared to be on a collision course for the Big 12 Championship. However, former Oklahoma quarterback Rhett Bomar's exceptional work at a car dealership landed him at Sam Houston State.
Stud quarterbacks are nothing new at Texas Tech, though. What will take Texas Tech to the top of the Big 12 is a defense that will start nine upperclassmen. Of the nine, six have seen significant playing time since they were freshmen. In the ultimate team sport, that much experience together is invaluable. Even on the rare days Texas Tech's offense sputters, this defense will take over and lead the Red Raiders to victory.
Hold the drum roll (Texas Tech)
Kansas isn't really the fourth-best team in the conference. Five teams are better.
I'm not jumping ship on Oklahoma, though. Having senior Paul Thompson at quarterback is better than having two freshmen quarterbacks. Thompson has experience at the position, and his background at wide receiver gives him a Vince Young-like quality, faint as it may be.
Oklahoma also has a stout defense that only Texas Tech will be able to penetrate effectively enough to hand Oklahoma a loss.
As for the Cornhuskers, they will flourish in coach Bill Callahan's west-coast offense this year and
Call me crazy, call me delusional or to quote the movie Snatch,
"Call me
Susan if it makes you happy," but this is my preseason Big 12 poll. I don't
ask that you agree with it, but take comfort in that this
preseason poll won't crush any teams' bowl hopes.
Kansan sportswriter Shawn Shroyer Mound City junior in journalism.
Edited by Shanxi Upsdell
North:
Shawn Shroyer's Big 12 predictions
South:
Kansas State 4-8(1-7)
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