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University Daily Kansan Tuesday, Oct. 27, 1964
New Jersey Toss-up
Although Atlantic City was the epitome of Democratic devotion late last summer, the prospects, according to the inevitable poll-takers, demonstrate that New Jersey may not be as loyal as it looked this summer.
There was even some talk that the convention site was Atlantic City because of the waning enthusiasm for Democratic candidates, ideas and policies in that state.
THE STATE'S MOST popular politician, Sen. Case, is a Republican. He is regarded as a rather liberal Republican, but he is still a Republican. He first won his popularity in 1952, when he condemned Sen. McCarthy for his ranting tactics in the Senate Communist investigations. At that time, the New Jersey Republicans were not sure that it was the most propitious stand to take, but it turned out to be one of the best political moves he ever made.
The New Jersey Democrats should be thankful that Sen. Case is not up for re-election this year, according to the 1963 returns. Case gained an overwhelming plurality in that state.
The first signs of the New Jersey disenchantment came in the 1960 presidential election. John Kennedy captured the state's 16 electoral votes, but barely squeezed a majority vote. He beat Nixon by 22,091 votes, not very many by election standards.
THE NEXT ELECTIONS showed that New Jersey voters gave control of the state assemblies to the Republicans This was especially distressing to President Kennedy since the assemblies had stayed in Democratic hands for the previous six years.
A few months later, the voters defeated a $750 million bond issue on which Democratic Gov. Richard Hughes staked much of his political prestige.
AS OF NOW, the Republicans hold a 33-27 edge in the state House; and a 15-6 majority in the state Senate. This all happened in that part of the country in which, supposedly, there is an exceptional dearth of Republicans!
The one senator up for re-election, Harrison Williams, is expected to win. He is a Democrat. Thirteen members of the House of Representatives are up for election, six of them for reelection. Of these, the Democrats are supposed to capture six seats and Republicans five. So apparently the national outlook for the Democrats is not quite so bleak as at the state level.
From the Sonate and House predictions, it seems that President Johnson can count on New Jersey to help elect him. However, it might be well if he concentrated some of his campaigning time in New Jersey, in view of the small margin of safety in the 1960 campaign.
Leta Cathcart
Battleground in the West
California — with 40 electoral votes and a perplexing political history — is shaping up as the crucial battleground of the presidential campaign.
Discounting past presidential elections, the conservative zeal and the backlash vote stirred by the controversial Proposition 14, the Democrats appear to have California all sewn up. They point to:
- RESULTS OF THE recent California Poll, showing Johnson favored by 62 per cent to Goldwater's 33 per cent.
- Latest registration figures, listing 56 per cent Democrats, 41 per cent Republicans and 3 per cent others and "declining to state." What's more, new registrations are running heavily Democratic.
- Johnson's "frontlash" — 25 per cent of the GOP members who have crossed over, while 90 per cent of the Democrats remain loyal.
- Humphrey's appeal. Half the LBJ supporters feel Humphrey strengthens the Democratic ticket, while only 25 per cent of the Goldwater supporters are that favorable to Miller.
- GOP SPLIT in party leadership - dating from the June 2 primary - which neither the winners nor the once-Rockefeller advocates seem anxious to mend. There are even reports some Goldwater organizations are refusing to help Republicans campaign for Congress and the state legislature. Conservative Senatorial candidate George Murphy, an on-again, off-again Goldwaterite, has been pussy-footing around the GOP crack. Republican Sen. Thomas Kuehel refuses to campaign in his home state or to endorse Goldwater.
- Democratic conciliation, with Gov. Pat Brown's forces now joined solidly by House Speaker Jesse (Big Daddy) Unruh's faction in backing the Johnson - Humphrey - Salinger slate.
- Bright outlook in the Senate race. Pierre Salinger, now holding the Senate seat, the
Kennedy lure, a not-very-re sented carpetbag and a 12 percentage-point lead, strengthens the Democrats' position.
ALL SEWN UP? There are still a few loose stitches in the Democratic embroidery. For instance:
California hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1948, when Truman won with an 18,000-vote edge.
Twenty-thousand Goldwater volunteers have manned the "Operation Alert" telephone campaign publicizing the senator's state television appearances. In Los Angeles County, 8,500 zealous, hard-working GOP volunteers have engineered a large Democratic switch, putting Goldwater neck-and-neck with Johnson in southern California.
- John Tower and Strom Thurmond are stumping the state for their fellow conservative, with Richard Nixon and Dwight Eisenhower soon to follow.
- PROPOSITION 14 is expected to draw a large conservative element to the polls. The key provision of the initiative constitutional amendment forbids any action by state or local agencies which would deny the right of any person to decline to sell, lease or rent to any person he chooses. The proposition,
currently favored by 47 per cent of the voters, would invalidate housing clauses in the 1959 Hawkins Act and Unruh Civil Rights Act and the 1963 Rumford Act. Salinger and, by association, Johnson may be victims of the Proposition 14 backlash.
Making political predictions is treacherous in a state heavily populated by recent migrants from other states and where, until 1959, cross-filing discouraged close party affiliation. But it seems safe to say that, despite the probable passage of Proposition 14, Johnson and Salinger will carry the state.
Goldwater has reasoned that he must win California's 40 electoral votes to win the election.
THUS GOLDWATER'S reasoning points to his defeat in November.
- * *
Pollsters and pundits long ago delivered Hawaii's four electoral votes to Johnson. The state is heavily Democratic and business is good. Besides, Goldwater's vote against the Civil Rights Bill was a suicidal act in a state whose population is 67 per cent non-Caucasian. The Democratic atmosphere has dampened the chances for re-election of Sen. Hiram Fong, whose race against Democratic Rep. Thomas P. Gill is still in the toss-up stage.
— Margaret Hughes
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EDITORIAL DEPARTMENT
Jim Langford and Rick Mabbutt Co-Editorial Editors
BUSINESS DEPARTMENT
EDITORIAL DEPARTMENT Jim Langford and Rick Mabhutt
Bob Phinney Business Manager Don Black, Leta Cathcart, Bob Jones, Greg Swartz, Assistant Managing Editors; Linda Ellis, Feature-Society Editor; Russ Corbitt, Sports Editor. John Pepper, Advertising Manager; Dick Flood, National Advertising Manager; John Suhler, Classified Advertising Manager; Tom Fisher, Promotion Manager; Nancy Holland, Circulation Manager; Gary Grazda, Merchandising Manager.
"You Know In Your Heart He's Too Far Right"
Democrats Safe Victors In R.I., Connecticut
Peace and prosperity will put the states of Connecticut and Rhode Island safely on the Johnson side of the ledger in the upcoming November elections.
In Connecticut President Johnson is expected to overpower Barry Goldwater by a plurality of some 200,000 votes in winning the state's eight votes in the electoral college. Many moderate and liberal Republicans, traditionally strong in the state, are reportedly planning to vote for Johnson or to avoid any selection whatever on that level. If this does not make the picture dark enough, the Republicans find themselves behind in registered voters by nearly 45,000.
THE PREDICTED sweep by Johnson darkens the prospects for all lower-level Republican office-seekers. In Connecticut a strong candidate at the "top of the ticket" president or governor — usually pulls his entire ticket to victory with him because the voting machines in that state make it difficult to split party tickets.
The only Senate race finds incumbent Sen. Thomas J. Dodd (D) heavily favored over former Gov. John Lodge (R). Dodd has a strong public image because of his work in the fields of juvenile delinquency and foreign affairs. His vigorous anti-Communist activities have cost him the support of some Democrats, but have won him support from such conservative sources as the National Review and Mrs. Clare Booth Luce. Dodd has consistently supported the national administration on domestic matters, despite his disagreements on matters of foreign policy.
Connecticut's six representatives all go up for re-election. The present lineup is five Democrats and one Republican. The
predicted sweep could elect a six-man Democratic slate. Five of the six districts are safely in the Democratic column, and the lone Republican faces a tough battle for his seat.
Connecticut in this election will go heavily Democratic at all levels.
IN RHODE ISLAND the only question about the election concerns the size of President Johnson's plurality. The President can count on Rhode Island's four electoral votes, since the people of that state are essentially working men and they are skeptical about Goldwater's stands on social security and labor unions.
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To win again, Gov. John H. Chafee (R) must overcome the effects of Johnson's candidacy and the efforts of the Democratic party unified behind Lt. Gov. Edward P. Gollogly. Chafee's chances for re-election rest on whether enough Rhode Islanders split their tickets.
The expected Johnson sweep (maybe 2-1) is of great importance to Republicans who hope to re-elect the first Republican governor in 34 years.
SEN. JOHN O. PASTORE (D) is seeking his third term and is considered nearly unbeatable. Ronald R. Lagueux, his Republican opponent, faces an uphill fight against the popular Pastore, who won re-election in 1958 by capturing 64 per cent of the vote.
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In the House, two Democratic seats are up for re-election. No changes are expected as the popular Democratic incumbents face relatively weak Republican opposition.
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Rhode Island, too, will go strongly to the Democratic party in November.
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Rick Mabbutt
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