Friday, Oct. 23, 1964
University Daily Kansan
Page 3
GOP Hopes Not Bright in Heart of the West
(The following article is one of a series dealing with states and the market, which will be run along with the articles in campaign issues until the election.)
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FROM THE HEART of the West comes bad news for the GOP. A look at five western states, an area the Republicans hoped they could count on, sheds ominous light on the GOP hopes. These states — Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico — are not key states so far as their combined 18 electoral votes are concerned, but they may be important barometers.
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A cursory summary of the five sparsely settled states reveals that President Johnson is leading at the moment in four; Democratic gubernatorial candidates look to be in a commanding position in two of the three races; of five senatorial contests, four are slanted toward the Democratic candidate; and four of seven house seats may go to the Democrats. Certainly, the early October look reveals Republicans in trouble.
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In many of the races it appears that people are unwilling to change administrations while their state economies are good.
Montana, the stronghold of Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield (D), appears to be in the Johnson camp. The state has voted Republican in the last three elections, but Nixon's 1960 margin was slim.
THE ONLY real problem for the Johnson ticket in Montana, appears to be if the Republicans can make political hay with the ranchers by playing up dropping beef prices and linking it to imported beef. Employment is now the highest in years, and many Republican businessmen are reported ready to vote for Johnson.
Mike Mansfield should win his Montana senatorial race in a breeze over Republican Alex Blewett, a Great Falls lawyer. The Montana Democratic Senate leader will benefit from his close connection with Johnsonian programs. Mansfield won in a landslide in 1958, when he polled 76.2 per cent of the senatorial vote.
The two races for the House of Representatives are not causing much of a stir. It is likely that Rep. Arnold Olsen (D) will be returned from the First District and that James Battin (R) will be re-elected from the Second District.
Montana Gov. Tim Babcock (R), who succeeded the late Gov. Donald G. Nutter following the latter's death in an airplane crash in January 1962, seems like a sure winner. Strangely, Babcock, who espouses conservatism and opposes federal aid, depends on the federal government for 40 per cent of the state's income.
AS FAR WYOMING, it appears that this state holds the most hope for the Republican presidential nominee. Foreign problems and big government spending have infected many Wyoming voters with distaste for President Johnson. However, a once sizeable Goldwater lead gives indication of melting slightly, and the Presidential race could be close.
anti-Johnson weapon. Wyoming voters fear the loss of rural representation. The beef problem is an issue which aids the Goldwaterites. Wyoming gave Richard Nixon 60 per cent of the popular vote in 1960. It will be closer this year.
Unhealed scars from the primary elections still haunt Republican John Wold's chances to upset incumbent Gale McGee (D) for the Wyoming Senate seat. The Republican schism may allow McGee to walk in.
The issue of Supreme Court-ordered reapportionment is an
If gambling oddies are any indication, Neva da will vote for Lyndon Johnson. Democrats outnumber Republican registrants by a two-to-one margin.
The state went Republican in 1952 and 1956, but returned to the Democratic camp in 1960 to help the late John F. Kennedy to victory.
Clouding the issue is the fact that the Nevada legislature is heavily Republican, with 53 senators and representatives to the Democrats' 30 legislators: Here again we find the cloud of reapportionment as a Republican weapon. Right now, the state looks ready to give Johnson a narrow victory.
In the Nevada senate picture, incumbent Howard Cannon (D), should win over opponent Paul Laxalt. But Cannon must escape contamination from a former association with Bobby Baker. Baker once feted Cannon at a political dinner in Las Vegas, and as a member of the Senate's Rules and Administration Committee, which investigated Baker's activities, Cannon was accused by some of dragging his feet.
Laxalt, not known widely, is the current lieutenant governor of the state.
BASED ON PAST showings. Rep. Walter S. Baring (D) should win re-election to Nevada's single House seat. He won more than 75 per cent of the vote in the 1962 campaign.
In Utah, recent polls give President Johnson a good lead. The state has voted Republican in each of the past three elections, but recent population gains in the state appear to be Democratic gains. Government contracts, now helping to boom Utah's economy, should give luster to the Democratic campaign.
A recent poll gave Johnson 61 per cent of the vote, compared to Goldwater's 33 per cent, with six per cent undecided.
The vote for president probably hinges upon which candidate will stimulate the state's economy, promote reclamation, and develop natural resources. As a result, Utah looks like Johnson country.
The Utah Senate race features incumbent Frank E. Moss (D), in opposition to Ernest Wilkinson (R), a former Brigham Young University president, Moss's close voting with the Democratic majority probably will do the trick for him.
IN THE FIRST District fight for the House of Representatives, Laurence J. Burton (R), the incumbent, appears headed
for victory. The Second District race is a toss-up. In cumbent Sherman P. Lloyd (R), is stepping aside, and his place will be taken by either Republican candidate Thomas Judd or Democrat David King, whom Lloyd defeated in 1962.
For the Utah governorship, Mitchell Melich (R) and Calvin L. Rampton (D) aspire to the seat now held by two-termer George D. Clyde (R). At the present time, Rampton holds the edge. A Rampton victory would upset a 16-year Republican hold on the governorship.
In New Mexico there seems to be no great popularity for Barry Goldwater. A healthy economy, based largely upon government contracts, helps Johnson. The key to the state is Albuquerque, which contains 20 per cent of the state's population and many of the government contracts.
The state carried Republican majorities in 1952 and 1956, but fell back into the Democratic camp in 1960. Since 1932, the only Republican presidential victories in the state have been Eisenhower's.
— Robert Henry
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