Friday, June 14, 1963
Summer Session Kansan
Page 3
China's Goal: Hegemony in Asia
By Larry Schmidt
Time and again the question is asked, "Where will Communism make its strongest gains in the future?" And more frequently those who have devoted their lives to observation and analysis of the Communist movement say the answer lies deep in the jungles of Southeast Asia or, at least, there-abouts.
The primary aggressor picked by thee experts more likely will be Red China than the Soviet Union. Of course, the United States will play the role of "public defender."
BEHIND THE THEORY of Red Chinese dominance of Communist expansion in this part of the world lie several basic factors. Two seem to be more important than the others.
These become clear when the question is posed as to whether Communist or near-Communist nations in Asia would side with Peking or Moscow in case of a showdown. It is thought that most of these nations would turn to China, since Mao Tse-tung's revolution is more than just Communist. Underlying it is a philosophy of Asia for the Asians.
The Red Chinese also are making good use of Soviet Russia as a sort of whipping boy in the current debate over leadership of the world revolutionary movement. The Russians are pictured as the "haves" in contrast to the Southeast Asian "have-not" nations, much as the United States has been painted by the Russions.
THESE OBSERVATIONS, it should be noted, are basically projections of future possibilities since China today is at about the point in development where the Russians were three or four decades ago. Even if the Communist Chinese should detonate a nuclear device in the next year or two the industrial capacity simply would not be ready for any quick transformation from an experimental explosion to an atomic arsenal.
The reason the Red Chinese have not attempted more aggression recently is probably due to the fact that, with the collapse of the attempted "Great Leap Forward," Mao has turned his attention to food production. Yields in the Far East, particularly in food crops, are among the lowest in the world. The deficits are too large to be balanced by imports.
Furthermore, difficulties such as rising populations, a shrinking manto-land ratio, widespread illiteracy and complex social problems make it unlikely that production will increase enough to erase the deficits in the foreseeable future.
NONETHELESS, a check of the current box-score in the Orient indicates the Communists, Chinese or otherwise, are doing quite well.
The conclusion of many American newsmen in the Far East is that the United States is losing as we continue to remain on the defensive. Defending those countries under attack by the Communists apparently is the only logical posture.
To illustrate the increasing effectiveness of the Red Chinese over that of the Russian Communists, consider the present situation in Laos.
ALTHOUGH the Communist Patheo Laet Ha been attacking the neutralists in spite of the Geneva agreement of last year, the United States tends to absolve Russia from much of the blame. It believes that the Soviet Union is trying to get genuine compliance with those agreements. But there is a serious question as to how much influence Russia has in Laos.
It is understood that the reason for this is the growing influence of Red China in Laotian affairs. Competition among the Moscow and Peking elements in the kingdom has been increasing, it is said. It is also thought that Khrushchev does not want to precipitate a new world crisis in Laos, especially at a time when he has troubles at home and in Cuba and Berlin.
In a sense, however, the Communist powers presumably never did regard the troika arrangement as permanent.
IT IS A Communist doctrine to use such coalitions to weaken the other partners preparatory to a Red takeover; legally if possible, otherwise by force.
If the Communists decide that this is not quite the moment to seize the government, the troika will resume its uncertain course. But the evidence suggests that the Pathet Lao has no intention of permitting it to function properly.
In Viet-Nam, too, the battle against Communism is bogged down. Here many observers say the United States must contain the Red surge or lose prestige in the eyes of the other Southeast Asian nations.
One of the major problems now seems to be centered around President Ngo Dinh Diem's insistence that he and his military advisers be allowed to make the basic operational decisions without interference from the U.S. The fact remains, though, that the United States has been supplying the men, money and materials to South Viet-Nam. It is said that the U.S. is withholding its contribution to the current year's counter-guerrilla campaign in an effort to force Diem to accept no less than a two-way co-operation.
DIEM, however, believes the United States is so firmly committed to the war that it cannot indefinitely suspend its help.
There have been growing fears that Communist infiltration has spread from Laos into pro-West Thailand, where still more trouble is brewing. Here, the forces allied to, or under the control of, the Viet Minh in Hanoi have been making preparations for another war of "national liberation."
It was not until last year—and then only under pressure from the United States—that Bangkok really began to dig into the grass roots of the northeastern Thailand problem.
United States intelligence experts are concerned about the extensive road building by Red China along Chinese borders, especially close to the new trouble spot. Some think the 24-hour construction efforts may be a prelude to a thrust into any one of several rice bowl nations.
IN AN ATTEMPT to reduce the threat in Thailand, Southeast Asian Treaty Organization member-countries will participate in ground maneuvers in Thailand. The display of power clearly is intended to advise the Communists to stay out of Thailand even if they overrun Laos.
Still another country shivering under the Red shadow is Burma. Here, during recent months, parliamentary democracy has crumbled and in its place have come authoritarian rule and doctrineinaire Marxism. Fortunately, the Burmese generally deplore communism (the Communists gained no seats in free elections held in 1960), but constant Communist guerrilla insurgency has plagued the countryside.
NOW. THE JOB of developing the Indian economy is made more difficult by the aim to double the army to more than a million men by 1965, modernize the air force, and generally increase military strength by more than doubling defense expenditures.
The continuing possibility of armed attack on India by the Red Chinese is a danger to some 400 million people beyond the Himalayas.
Still, the government hopes to go ahead with almost all the development programs designed to shore-up the failing Indian economy.
Although the years-long jungle battle against Communists in Malaya is all but won, new pressures are arising in reference to the proposed Federation of Malaysia, composed of independent Malaya, self-governing Singapore, and the British protectorates of Sarawak, Brunei, and North Borneo.
The immediate dangers are posed by Peking-directed Communist subversion, and the expansionist aims of neighboring Indonesia.
INDONESIA would like to acquire the three British protectorates to "protect her flanks" and stop the Malaysian Federation, viewed by the Indonesians in the long run as the thin wedge of Chinese Communism, directly endangering the security of Indonesia.
Indonesia is thought by many to be the next spot for a Communist takeover. More than a few Indonesians acknowledge this danger but assert that President Sukarno is meeting it in the most effective way possible: by "integrating" the Reds into his government and hence controlling them. Outsiders who consider this view naive are looked upon as being "uninformed" on "Indonesia's special problems."
In a recent visit to Indonesia, the titular head of the Communist Chinese government, Liu Shao-chi, ignored the reference to Chinese expansionism and voiced his support (as has the Soviet Union) of the neutralist republic's "struggle against imperialism."
What began, then, as a seemingly desirable merging of the former British colonial territories in Southeast Asia, with high promise that the new federation would help to bring stability and progress to a notoriously unstable region, is now rapidly becoming filled with the gravest danger not only for Southeast Asia but for all countries with a vested interest in its future . . . and they are many.
AS ONE NEWSMAN, just returned from the Far East, has noted,
"We've poured hundreds of millions (of dollars) into Indonesia to keep it from going Communist. Yet Sukarno continues to throw his weight around against the West. . . ."
So much for a brief sketch of a few of the Far East's problem areas.
A much more searching invest-
(Continued on page 10)
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