'Ecological doomsday' considered an 'if'
Economics prof says future not so grim
In the wake of recent predictions of an "ecological doomsday" by Paul Ehrlich and other eminent ecologists, at least one man at KU does not believe the future is really so grim.
Ronald Calgaard, associate professor of economics at the University of Kansas, said Wednesday that Ehrlich's predictions center around the word "if."
Calgaard explained that predicted famines and overpopulation are projected from current birth rates. This is inaccurate, Calgaard said, because it fails to consider technology and other things that could alter the future situation.
Calgaard said that technology
and economic growth could affect population growth.
"When countries experience economic growth and prosperity, people's attitudes often change regarding family size," Calgaard said.
This means that prosperity can make smaller families desirable, he said.
Indicating that technology can also change famine predictions, Calgaard cited India as an example.
"Since 1967, India's food production has increased seven to eight per cent." Calgaard said.
He said this has happened because of improved agricultural technology.
Exhibits explore plays of Gilbert and Sullivan
An exhibition organized in conjunction with the International Conference on Gilbert and Sullivan is now being shown in the basement of the Spooner Art Museum, Bert Waller, director of the museum, said Wednesday.
The exhibition features 52 items: posters, costume studies and set designs by 14 artists concerned with various Gilbert and Sullivan shows, Waller said. He said the works included in the exhibition were selected by John Bush Jones, assistant professor of English and chairman of the Gilbert and Sullivan conference.
"The enduring appeal of the
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works of Gilbert and Sullivan is attested by the 52 items in this exhibition," said Waller.
Waller said the museum was indebted to the Victoria and Albert Museum and to Graham Reynolds, the keeper of the department of drawings and prints of that msueum for the help they provided in setting up the exhibit.
The works included in the exhibit are concerned with the following Gilbert and Sullivan shows: "The Pirates of Penzance," "Princess Ida," "Patience," "The Gondoliers," "Ruddigore," "Iolanthe," "H.M.S. Pinafore," "The Mikado," "The Yeoman of the Guard," "The Sorcerer," "Ivanhoe," "The Chieftan," "The Rose of Persia," "The Emerald Isle" and "The Grand Duke."
Waller said the exhibit would coincide with the international Conference on Gilbert and Sullivan to be held at KU in May.
Calgaard does believe, however, that there is a population problem. He said that although India's food production is increasing, the situation could be better if there were fewer people.
Calgaard said although many critics of population control argue that small populations mean a decrease in economic growth, "this is not the case."
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He explained that after World War II, Japan reduced its population and still increased its economic growth. But as a result, many Japanese cities such as Tokyo are heavily polluted, he added.
Calgaard said that increased production does not have to yield more pollution.
"But in order to correct pollution," Calgaard said, "consumers are going to have to bear the costs."
He said at present, industries installing anti-pollution devices are making consumers bear the costs by increasing product costs.
Automobile pollution is an example of costs to consumers.
"Automobile manufacturers who install anti-pollution devices
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increase costs of the product as compensation," Calgaard said.
"The question is," Calgaard said, "are people willing to pay the costs of eliminating pollution?"
Although Calgaard believes that people should be informed about
ecological problems, he disagrees with what he called "scare tactics" used by Ehrlich in the book, "The Population Bomb."
"Scare tactics do call attention to the problem," Calgaard said, "but they cause reactions before thought."
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