University Daily Kansan
Enrollment drops, changes ahead for KU
Staff Reporter
By JOHN LOGAN
After 15 years of uninterrupted growth, the University of Kansas is about to enter a period of uncertainty characterized by large drops in enrollment and changes in the types of students attending KU, according to Chancellor Archie R. Dykes.
Enrollment on the Lawrence campus could fall as low as 19,000 by 1988, according to official University figures. And University officials say a large part of that enrollment will be professionals returning as graduate students to update their education.
Enrollment estimates prepared by the administration in 1976 predict that KU's enrolment will stay about the same for the next three years. Enrollment will then begin to fall by as much as 800 students each year, and drop to 18,750 in 1989. Current enrolment is about 22,500 for the Lawrence campus.
BUT DYKES said past experience had given him little confidence in the accuracy of his findings.
"Six years ago when I first came here people said, "What are you going to do about declining enrollment?" Dykes said, "Now, with the University 20 percent bigger, they still ask me what I'm going to do about declining enrollment."
But Dykes said that even though the estimates may not be accurate, enrollment definitely would fall during the next decade because of a decreasing number of high school seniors nationwide. Just how far it drops will depend on several factors, he added. It will be encouraging education programs, federal student aid and state funding for the University.
attract the increasing numbers of professional people who are returning to
Dykes said KU hoped to offset the decrease in the number of graduating high school seniors by expanding the University's continuing education program to
"THEE IS a greater emphasis today in lifelong education. Dykes said. "Doctors lawyers and engineers are going back to them on the cutting edge of their professions."
Government funding, or the lack of it, also will affect enrollment.
Dykes described government funding for the University and its students as the great unanswered question faced during the past decade. He also yearly builds the and the constant evaluation of federal student aid programs keep KU ad- hoc watering about the future of the school, he said.
State funding for KU might strangle the University if the Legislature continues to base its allocations on enrollment, Dykes said.
If funding is cut back, KU will have to cut back on many programs, thus reducing its ability to attract students. he said. That in turn increases funding cuts and more drops in enrollment.
DYKES SAID the possible reinstitution of the draft and the troubles in the Middle East also could have an effect on the number of students at KU.
"If the draft is restarted it could have a profound effect on the number of young men in college, depending on whether it exempts college students," Dykes said.
Tarmool in the Middle East could keep many Arab and Israeli students from attending American schools, Dykes said. The schools and departments now bait to link up number of foreign students they admit in order to allow American students to enroll.
Dykes also said he was concerned that many American high school students did not understand how to properly use a computer.
"AN INCREASING number of college-people don't think college is relevant for their ambitions," Dykes said. "If more of them feel this way it could be a problem."
But despite the uncertainties, both Dykes and Del Shankel, executive vice chancellor, say they are convinced that KU can weather cuts in programs about what significant cuts in programs or faculty.
Some cuts will have to be made, however, and Shankel told the University Senate Executive Committee recently that 135 candidates would have to be cut in the next five years.
But Shankel said almost all of the positions would be vacated by faculty members who are scheduled to retire or who will resign during that time. The University also is pushing the Kansas Board of Regents to approve an early retirement plan for KU's Faculty.
ALSO, IN case a school or department
finds itself overestatted because of an enrollment decline, the administration is considering a plan that would allow faculty to stay in school to school and retrain themselves in other areas.
"It would allow them to fill other roles in the school if they were in areas that were not there."
The proposal is being developed by admin-
istrators and faculty representatives, he said.
Shankel said that no major cuts were expected in any departments during the next decade. However, some changes will occur. Because that suffer large enrollment drops, he said.
Changes in University schools and departments will not be based solely on evidence.
"You can't just use numbers as a factor," he said. "Quality is a key factor as well as how important the program is to providing a well-rounded education."
KU enrollment decline forecasted
By BILL RIGGINS
Staff Reporter
The University of Kansas apparently is enjoying a mild period of prosperity.
KU had a record enrollment last fall. Three major construction projects are underway on the Lawrence campus. Programs in architecture, electrical engineering and computer science
But there is a threat of a serious decline in future enrollments, a problem that already has been encountered by some Kansas Board officials.
Glee Smith, Kansas Regent, has said Regents studies indicate total enrollment at Regents institutions will decline 16 percent from the 2014-15 academic year.
This would put total enrollment at Regents schools at 60,000 in 1990, about the same enrollment as in 1970.
"THAT'S NOT really a small level. It is a pretty substantial level," Smith said. "We'll have a much more stable system in 1990 when we get the Internet."
Smith said that KU enrollment was projected to decline by 13 percent, but he said an increase in graduate and special programs would make the problem worse.
Bernard Franklin, Kansas Regent, agreed that the enrollment crunch probably would be felt less at KU, Kansas State University and Wichita State University than at the Regents smaller universities, such as Emporia State and Pittsburgh State University.
"Many programs at KU, KSU and WSU have long-range needs such as professional schools in veterinary medicine, medicine and pharmacy."
HOWEVER, KU administrators and state legislators are concerned because, they say, any decline in enrollment could cause the state to lose a large portion of its budget.
State Rep. Mike Glover, D-Lawrence, said there was no doubt that funding battles in the Legislature would get tougher as the
"The battle gets tougher as the times get tougher." Glover, a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, said.
State Sen. Arnold Berman, D-Lawrence, agreed.
"There's no question that overall it's a fairly gloomy forecast that was put out by the Regents," Berman said.
Glover said all areas of the University's budget would come under closer scrutiny in a time of declining enrollment.
AND THAT is what is concerning KU administrators.
Ron Calgaard, vice chancellor for academic affairs, said that if enrollment began to decline, very few new academic programs would be approved by the Legislature, especially programs of substantial cost.
"There aren't going to be eight to 10 new programs approved every year," Calgaard said.
"The major problem is still the deficit of funding to support the type of academic program to which KU is committed."
Programs that have not been adequately funded in the past,
Colleges and universities, meet the customer requirements.
But Calgary said he thought the enrollment decline at KU would not be as severe as predicted.
"I tend to swallow long-range predictions with grains of salt," Calgaard said. "Our enrollment is likely to be fairly stable.
"THESE WILL BE some decline in traditional-age, on-campus enrollment. There will be some decline in humanities which will be off by a rise in enrollment in professional degrees. I believe it's a problem for our on-campus programs, primarily in metropolitan Kansas City."
David Amber, vice chancellor for student affairs, agreed that the enrollment predictions were speculative.
"So many things affect enrollment that you can't predict or control." Amber said.
"There may be a greater shift from private to public institutions and who knows what will happen to the percentage of high school graduates."
Ambler said some student services that depended on student fees for funding, such as health services and housing, might have to raise their fees or restrict services if enrollment declined. He noted that most schools will pay by rechanneling funds from services that were not used extensively.
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