University Daily Kansan / Tuesday, March 8, 1988
TuesdayForum
5
Republicans play for high stakes today
Super Tuesday results probably will favor Bush but Kemp's quest for the presidency could end
Today, Super Tuesday, 20 states will choose their delegates to the Republican National Convention in New Orleans. About one-third of the Republican delegates are at stake, so the Super Tuesday results will be some of the most important of the campaign. But a victory in the South does not mean a victory in the entire country. The candidates who survive Super Tuesday will still have a long race to run before the final tally in New Orleans.
The four remaining candidates are Vice President George Bush, Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole, Rep. Jack Kemp of New York and Pat Robertson, Dole and Bush are billed as the mainstream front-runners, and Kemp and Robertson are the conservative alternatives. All four men have similar (although not identical) views on many issues; they all support SDI and the contrasts and oppose increases in the income tax rate and protectionist tariffs. But the differences between the candidates are also very pronounced and important.
Bush is probably the candidate with the most foreign policy experience. His resume is very diverse, ranging from CIA director to United Nations ambassador to Vice President. Domestically, Bush wants to reduce the deficit by large cuts in federal spending. His education package includes merit pay and teacher competency tests.
Dole is certainly the most politically experienced candidate. He began his career in local politics and worked his way up to his current position as ranking Senate Republican. Dole's views on most issues are similar to those of Bush, but Dole tends to have a more pragmatic view of things; he looks at issues from the standpoint of a veteran congressman. For example, Dole refused to support the INF treaty until he was sure it was free of extra and possibly crippling amendments from the House or Senate. Dole opposes tax increases but does favor user fees for federal services and has worked to eliminate loopholes in the tax codes. He differs sharply from Bush on the budget deficit: Rather than cut specific programs during his first year, he advocates a freeze on all spending not directed at the truly poor. There are also small but key foreign policy differences; for example, Support aid supports to the contras in order to remove the Soviet presence in Nicaragua, not to overthrow the
Thomas R.
Walker
Guest Columnist
government. Dole also supports IRA-like accounts for higher education and a welfare/education program of job training and counseling.
Kemp bills himself as the true conservative of the race and the true inheritor of the Reagan mantle. Kemp is best known for his work on the tax reductions of the early '80s, and he now favors further reductions in capital gains tax. He wants to eliminate the budget deficit by freezing all domestic pro-
The most probable results of Super Tuesday will be a Bush victory, a narrow and important second-place for Dole and an overall third-place for Robertson, with Kemp gaining few delegates and possibly even dropping out of the race.
probably win these. After Super Tuesday, most of the action will move west, and Dole will have the advantage. All Dole needs is a victory in one or two states and solid second-place finishes in the others to stay in the race and even win the nomination.
grams except Social Security and letting the economic growth naturally eliminate the deficit. His foreign policy resembles that of Reagan during his first term; he is a strong supporter of the contras and other rebel groups (Afghanistan, Angola) and of Israel.
Robertson's strengths lie in the traditional conservative issues related to family and social values. He wants to encourage home child care, voluntary school prayer and a general "moral awakening" of the United States. His domestic and foreign policy views are fairly straightforward conservative.
Which of these candidates survive to the convention depends to a large degree on the Super Tuesday results. Kemp, for example, has consistently been ranked fourth. Without a powerful (and seemingly unlikely) showing on Super Tuesday, Kemp is all but finished.
The situation is much more complex for the other three. Bush has always been ranked first in the South, and the odds are good that he will "win" Super Tuesday. He has the strongest Southern organization, and Texas is one of his home states.
Dole actually does not need to win Super Tuesday. His strength lies in the West and Midwest. A number of Western states are electing delegates on Super Tuesday along with the block of Southern states; Dole will
If it were not for the effects of Robertson's candidacy, Bush possibly could give Dole a mock-out punch in the South. But Robertson has a very strong and devoted organization, and the South is, he says, his home could even win a state of two. Robertson's campaign is having a strong destabilizing effect on Bush and is a powerful threat in strong Bush states such as Texas and Florida.
The most probable results of Super Tuesday will be a Bush victory, a narrow and important second-place for Dole and an overall third-place for Robertson, with Kemp gaining few delegates and possibly even dropping out of the race. Of course, even this is just a scenario. Super Tuesday is a first in U.S. politics; thus it is impossible to feel comfortable with any predictions. Today, the only opinions that matter will be those of the voters.
Thomas R. Walker is a Concordia freshman-majoring in economics and is policy chairman of KU College Republicans.
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