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Tuesday, April 23, 1991 / University Daily Kansan
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Observers consider the Soviet leader's next move in the economy
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON — U.S. officials are reluctantly concluding that Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev's government is paralyzed and that the world-shaking reforms at home and abroad may not hold power much longer.
Kremlin watchers in Washington are studying the most likely successors and considering what a post-bachev苏联 Union may look like.
Gorbache has enjoyed hearty support from President Bush, who made no secret of his hope that the Soviet leader would succeed in his attempt to reform the Soviet economy. But Bush advisers and State Department analysts now say privately that Gorbache appears unable to regain control of his fractions country and that his time may be running out.
"He's getting pretty close to the edge, and one influential Soviet writer wrote that he believed
Another said the situation looked precarious.
One official with long experience observing Soviet affairs said the administration had received recent signals from various sources indicating that Gorbachev was in serious trouble and was furiously trying to protect himself and undercut the opposition.
"He's very much aware of the threat," the official said.
Analysis
Administration officials are reluctant to comment openly about a subject as sensitive as Gorbache's political survival, and those who
spoke to The Associated Press did so only on the condition they remain anonymous.
Other observers injected a note of caution and said there was much hysterical talk but little hard evidence.
John D. Steinbrunner, director of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, said, "I do not see signs of his imminent demise."
"He has balanced the overall politics in a way that doesn't make it easy to get at him," Steinbruner said, though he acknowledged, "One never quite knows where the breaking point is."
State Department Counselor Robert B. Zoellick, in outlining Bush administration policy on Capitol Hill, recently alluded to the increased uncertainty about the future course of the Soviet Union.
Zoellick said that the United States should try to manage uncertainty by multiplying channels of information and increasing points of access within the rapidly changing Soviet society.
The administration is attempting to broaden its contacts at all levels of the Soviet power structure while trying not to undermine Gorbachev.
"We are resisting the advice of critics who say we should wash our hands of Gorbachev," said one well-prepared official.
Bush is pressing to settle a dispute over conventional force cuts in Europe and to complete work on a strategic arms reduction treaty while he still has a sympathetic counterpart in the Kremlin.
Sources said Bush eased his conditions for conducting a summit before the end of June in hopes of meeting Gorbachev again, in part to assess for himself what is happening in the Kremlin.
One indication of the depth of Gorbachev's trouble came during former President Nixon's recent trip to Moscow.
Dimitri Simes of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who accompanied Nixon, said that KGB Chairperson Vladimir Kryuchkov complained to them that he argued with Gorbachev too often.
That alone was an ominous sign, coming from the head of the secret police, but Simes recounted an even more intriguing follow-up.
"Just hours after our session with Kryuchkov, a senior KGB official requested a meeting with me," the Soviet affairs scholar wrote in an article for the Washington Post. "Claiming to be speaking with the KGB chairman's knowledge and for the benefit of Nixon, he suggested that, in our fact-finding, we consider a scenario in which the Supreme Court must actiant infighting between Gorbachev and (Russian Federation President Boris) Yeltsin and take power into its own hands."
Simes said the officer suggested Nixon pay more attention to Anatoly Lukvanov, a longtime party function-
ary whom Gorbachev selected as his first vice president and who now serves as chairperson of the Supreme Soviet.
"It was suggested that if the present stalemate continues, Lakyanov could play a major role in removing Gorbachev from power on the authority of the Soviet Legislature—presumably with full support of the military and security services." Simes said.
One State Department source said it was inconceivable that such a conversation would take place if the KGB chief were not trying to deliver a signal that Gorbachev was in serious trouble.
In recent months, the Soviet president has grown increasingly estranged from the reformers once fostered. And he has become more reliant on the KGB and the military to help him crack down on terrorist forces in the republics and restore order as strikes and unrest spread.
Official Soviet sources said in January that Gorbachev was no longer in complete control of his government and was, in effect, sharing power with the military.
Gorbachev could face a test this week when the Central Committee of the Communist Party meets in Moscow. Although the so-called plenum does not have the clout it did before Gorbachev moved his base of power from the Soviet Union to the party leadership, one of Gorbachev's last pedestals of support
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