THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT UNIVERSITY DAILY KANSAN
Friday. November 19. 1993
OUTLOOK
NAFTA small when compared to world trade
By Martin Crutsinger The Associated Press
WASHINGTON — President Clinton won't have long to savor his victory on the North American Free Trade Agreement because staring him in the face is an even bigger, but far more elusive prize — a trade agreement not just with two countries but the world.
Clinton wasted no time in hailing his 234-200 House victory Wednesday night as a "defining moment for our nation" that showed the United States was not turning inward but instead was willing to compete globally to create jobs at home.
The president, who was scheduled to leave today for a meeting in Seattle with top officials from 14 Asian and Pacific-rim nations, called NAFTA the "first step" in his administration's effort to increase jobs for Americans by removing foreign trade barriers. He said a key goal now is to complete the Uruguay Round of global trade talks involving 116 nations.
Those talks, being held under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, have dragged on for seven years but are now facing what all sides insist is a final negotiating deadline of Dec. 15.
The stakes for the United States are enormous. Despite all the sound and fury over NAFTA, most economists believe it will have, at best, a modest impact on the United States because Mexico's economy is just one-twentieth the size of the American economy.
The GATT talks, on the other hand, hold out the promise of lowering trade barriers in markets that, combined, are three times the size of the U.S. economy. One estimate puts the gain for the world economy at $270 billion in increased output from a successful Uruguay Round over the next decade.
While Clinton escaped becoming the first president ever to lose a trade agreement in Congress, the NAFTA victory did not come without costs. It exposed deep divisions in the Democratic Party.
Though they lost Wednesday's vote, NAFTA opponents claimed a moral victory and vowed to fight even harder to defeat a GATT agreement.
"The NAFTA fight has locked into place a new grassroots movement that is educated, staffed and ready to mobilize on whatever defective deal comes next," declared Lori Wallach, director of Ralph Nader's Public Citizen Trade Program.
And then there is Ross Perot. No one expects him to disappear. His charge that the elite in America was getting together to bargain away the jobs of ordinary citizens struck a responsive cord and he is one he is sure to use again.
Administration officials blame the rising tide of protectionism on America's prolonged economic slump. They insist that as the economy starts to expand more quickly, those resentments will dissipate.
But private economists say don't bet on it.
Clinton deals his way through NAFTA victory
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON — As President Clinton scribbed on his NAFTA call list, an arrow pointing left meant a "yes" vote, an arrow to the right a rejection. For weeks, arrows pointing left were hard to come by.
But by Monday, 60 hours before the House vote on the North American Free Trade Agreement, things were finally looking a little better for the White House: Clinton's list showed 100 solid and 13 likely NAFTA supporters. He was still more than a dozen votes short of victory but, finally, within striking distance.
At midday Tuesday, Clinton scrawled a pledge from Georgia Rep. Buddy Darden onto his notes, and it was over: the president would win a battle many thought he would run from, and even many of his closest advisers long thought he would lose.
What followed was a wild day of cajoling, dealing and arm-twisting. Not just for Clinton but for most of the Cabinet, allies on Capitol Hill and aides in the White House NAFTA "war room."
THE VOTE
Clinton's NAFTA triumph is a twisted tale of odd alliances, bareknuckle politics and old-fashioned pork-barreling. Allies say the main ingredient was simply Clinton's refusal to lose. But he didn't win alone. In all, his Cabinet made more than 1,000 phone calls to House members, and Republicans provided critical help.
The president's support of NAFTA was tepid at the outset. But his effort turned fierce by the end.
surprising even his allies.
"He was an extraordinarily aggressive and intense pursuer of votes," said House Republican Whip Newt Gingrich, a Clinton ally in the peculiar fight. "I don't know if we've ever had anybody much better."
Just before the 234-200 vote Wednesday night, while House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt was conceding defeat, Clinton called Gingrich and Minority Leader Robert Michel in the House cloakroom, thanking Republicans for giving a Democratic president a crucial triumph.
"Tonight's vote is a defining moment for our nation," Clinton said later in celebration. "At a time when many of our people are hurting from the strains of this tough global economy, we chose to compete, not to retreat."
Key dates so far in the North American Free Trade Agreement:
CHRONOLOGY
June 11, 1990: Then-President George Bush and Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari announce they will open preliminary discussions toward negotiating a free trade agreement between the two nations.
Feb. 5, 1991: Bush announces that Canada, which already has a free trade agreement with the United States, will join the negotiations with Mexico, aiming for an agreement that would create the world's largest free trade zone.
May 1991: Congress gives Bush the authority to negotiate the free trade agreement under "fast track" procedures that will require an up-or-down vote on the completed deal without amendments.
Aug. 12, 1992: After 14 months of bargaining, the
United States, Mexico and Canada reach agreement on a2,000-page pact that would eliminate tariffs and other
barriers to trade during a 15-year period.
Oct. 4, 1992: Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton ends months of speculation by announcing his support for NFAFT but says if elected president he will demand that supplemental agreements be negotiated to provide greater protection for worker rights, the environment and sudden import surges.
Aug. 13, 1993: Negotiators complete work on three supplemental agreements sought by the United States.
supplemental agreements sought by the United States. Nov. 4, 1993: Clinton sends legislation to Congress' to implement NAFTA, conceding that because of strong opposition from labor groups and Ross Perot he is facing an uphill battle to win passage.
Nov.17, 1993: House approves bill 234-200.
THE TRADE PARTNERS
Mexico: Historic change, but greater U.S. role
Nations face new partnership
By John Rice The Associated Press
MEXICO CITY — Everybody here agrees that a free trade treaty with the United States is a historic change for Mexico. The country's monuments to martyrs of U.S. invasion testify to that.
But most don't believe major changes will come quickly. And increased U.S. interest may be uncomfortable for a country that has made independence from the United States a watchword for generations.
The North American Free Trade Agreement, which passed its major hurdle Wednesday night with passage by the U.S. House of Representatives, will mean a greater U.S. economic role in Mexico and by Mexico in the United States.
It will mean greater U.S. scrutiny and criticism of Mexico's oft-criticized version of democracy. No Mexican government has given up power after an election in more than 120 years.
Canada: Make changes to define limits of deal
By Jeffrey Ulbrich
The Associated Press
TORONTO — Prime Minister Jean Chretien, barely two weeks in office, already faces an unenviably tough foreign affairs challenge: getting Washington to renegotiate parts of NAFTA.
Sticking to an election campaign promise, Chretien said yesterday he would demand a new code in the trade deal defining subsidies and dumping and for the same protection for energy resources that Mexico won for its oil industry.
If he doesn't get it, the prime minister said, Ottawa will not proclaim the North American Free Trade Agreement as law, even though it was approved by Parliament in May.
The question now is just how tough Chretien wants to get. If Canada backs out of NAFTA, there is nothing to prevent the United States from simply transforming it into a bilateral deal with Mexico. That would leave Canada with its original bilateral Free Trade Agreement with the United States, in effect since 1989, but would force Ottawa to do a separate deal with Mexico.
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