University Daily Kansan / Wednesday, January 31, 1990 11 Bush's Budget Inflation too high, Fed says The Associated Press WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday that the nation probably would avoid a recession this year but cautioned, "I wouldn't want to bet the ranch" on it. At the same time, he told the congressional Joint Economic Committee that the inflation rate of about 4.7% was while stable, was unacceptably high. His seemingly mild comments rocked financial markets, with traders interpreting them as a sign that the central bank will not lower intermediation soon. In the hours after his testimony, stock and bond prices fell sharply. "What he's really saying is . . . if you want to get inflation down, it may be you have to live with crummy economic growth, not for a few quarters, but for a few years," said Bruce Steinberg of Merrill Lynch. That's bad news for President Bush, who is counting on relatively In an apparent signal of a policy shift, Greenspan said "4.5 percent (inflation) is unacceptable ... because it is very difficult in that type of environment to prevent it from accelerating. "inflation at this stage represents the greatest threat of recession that we have because it will bring with it the loss of imbalances which hold in back." strong growth and lower interest rates to help trim the federal budget deficit. Earlier this month, in a speech to homebuilders in Atlanta, Bush pressed the Fed to lower interest rates. The risk of a recession has subsided somewhat since last spring, when the Fed began to ease credit, even though the economy, as measured by the gross national product, grew only 0.5 percent in the last three months of 1989, the slowest pace in three years, he said. A new statistical analysis of the Commerce Department's Index of Leading Indicators suggests that the probability of a recession developing in the next six months has declined from almost 30 percent last spring to about 20 percent, Greenspan said. No indication on whether the economy has avoided a recession will be visible until well into spring, he said. Despite the caveats, analysts said Greenspan was clearly more optimistic about growth than he was last July. He cautioned that some unseen economic shock, on top of weakness in housing and manufacturing might lead to a widespread downturn in activity. "There was a greater stress on inflation and less worry about the possibility of recession than we've heard from the Fed in the recent past," said economist David Wyss of DRI/McGraw Hill Inc., a Lexington, Mass., forming firm. "I don't think it means they're going to tighten, but it does mean they're not going to loosen right now," he said. Mayors criticize cuts in city funds The Associated Press WASHINGTON — The U.S. Conference of Mayors yesterday decried proposed cuts in urban funds in the Bush budget, particularly what its executive director called a "turkey list" of reductions in some of the cities' main programs. "We don't know who wrote it, but mayors are concerned they have been singled out," Thomas Cochran told a news conference about the list. Cochran, the organization's executive director, referred to a chapter in the Bush budget delivered to Congress on Monday. The chapter, titled "Reducing Investment in Low-Return Programs," calls for spending cuts in mass transit, sewage districts, student aid, low-income energy assistance and other urban programs. Cochran said the message in the new budget was that urban programs, which have been reduced 82 percent, should be cut again if Bush prevailed Grant program, particularly was a "serious slap in the face," he said, because it is the only major federal urban program remaining. A proposed $163 million cut from the $2.9 billion authorized in fiscal 1990 for the Community Development Cochran said that the conference "would get our forces together" to persuade Congress not to go along with the idea. At the same time, Cochran said that the budget did contain some positive elements for urban areas including money for Head Start, the Job Corps, homeless programs, AIDS treatment and the war against drugs. SENIORS: What to do with all your ambition For graduates with a burning desire to go far, there is a career with far-reaching opportunities. Sales management with the E. & J. Gallo Winery. Your responsibilities grow as fast as you grow. 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