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NATION/WORLD UNIVERSITY DAILY KANSAN
Forbes wins in Arizona
The Associated Press
Flat-tax champion Steve Forbes appeared at 12:50 this morning to have captured Arizona's winner-take-all primary, shocking Pat Buchanan and Bob Dole to seize an improbable lead in the turbulent Republican presidential race. Two-thirds of the Arizona precincts had reported.
Stung in the night's showdown contest, Dole took some solace in winning North Dakota and South Dakota.
For Forbes, the dramatic Arizona victory meant back-to-back celebrations after disappointing fourthplace showings in Iowa and New Hampshire had his candidacy in jeopardy.
Forbes was ecstatic with his victory. "We believe deeply that America has the potential for the greatest economic boom and spiritual renewal in its history," he told cheerling supporters in Phoenix.
The publishing heir won Delaware's primary on Saturday and used that boost — and another major personal investment in TV ads
— to surge past Buchanan and Dole in the final weekend of Arizona campaigning.
"A week ago they wrote our obituary," he said. "Now tonight, we can perhaps write the obituary of conventional political pundetry in America."
Buchanan could only be disappointed. He drew enthusiastic crowds throughout the final weekend and asserted an Arizona victory would make him the clear front-runner. Instead, he came away empty-handed heading into Saturday's showdown in South Carolina.
Dole flatly predicted a South Carolina victory, and the contest shapes up as his last good chance to launch a turnaround. Forbes trails in South Carolina, while Buchanan has been inching up. Dole left no doubt that he considered the more conservative Buchanan the bigger threat in the South.
With one-third of Arizona's vote tallied, Forbes was leading with 36 percent. Buchanan and Dole were batting for second; exit polling suggested Buchanan had the edge.
Lamar Alexander was a dim afterthought on the first multi-state primary day of the muddled GOP campaign, and some leading Dole supporters said it was time for the former Tennessee governor to get out of the way.
Yesterday's results put Forbes well ahead in the The Associated Press delegate count, with 60 so far. Buchanan had 37 and Dole 36, while Alexander had 10 delegates.
A candidate needs 996 delegates to win the Republican nomi-nation. The success of the anti-establishment candidates sparked talk in Republic circles yesterday of a contested convention.
The dramatic comeback gave Forbes improbable momentum in the nomination chase, with a critical, crowded stretch of primaries just ahead. Party leaders anxious to see Buchanan blocked from the nomination could turn quick attention to the deep-pocketed Forbes' candidacy.
Dole carried North Dakota and South Dakota handily and brushed aside his Sun Belt disappointment.
"We're back in the winning column," the Senate majority leader said. "It feels good."
Buchanan left Arizona early to focus down the road as well, staging an evening rally in Georgia, one of nine states with primaries next Tuesday.
"I'm simply the political instrument of a great movement in America," Buchanan said. Earlier, he said establishment Republican attacks him at the party's peril. "We can bring the Reagan Democrats home," he said. "I can bring the Perot voters home, if the Republican Party will only open its door to a lot of folks who have been left out and have no voice."
In addition to his Arizona loss, there was more sobering news for Buchanan in yesterday's voters surveys.
Asked whether Buchanan was too extreme, half the voters in all three states answered yes and slightly fewer said no. Also, while Buchanan has tried to turn foreign trade into a top campaign issue, half the voters in Arizona and South Dakota, and slightly fewer in North Dakota said the free trade agreements created jobs.
A majority of voters in Arizona cited taxes as their top concern, and flat-tax advocate Forbes, who spent more than $4 million on TV ads in Arizona alone, won much of their support. In the Dakotas the deficit mattered most, followed by taxes and jobs.
In South Dakota, with 98 percent of precincts counted, Dole had 45 percent of the vote, Buchanan 29 percent, Forbes 13 and Alexander nine.
With 94 percent of North Dakota
Primary results
How Republican candidates fared in yesterday's primaries:
ARIZONA
Percent of precincts reporting: 33%
Alexander 7%
Buchanan 27%
Dole 28%
Forbes 35%
Gramm 0%
Keyes 1%
Lugar 1%
NORTH DAKOTA
Alexander 6%
Buchanan 19%
Dole 42%
Forbes 20%
Gramm 9%
Keyes 3%
Lugar 1%
Percent of precincts reporting: 94%
SOUTH DAKOTA
Alexander 9%
Buchanan 29%
Dole 45%
Forbes 13%
Gramm 1%
Keyes 3%
Lugar 0%
Knight-Ridder Tribune
Percent of precincts reporting: 98%
precincts counted, Dole had 42 percent of the vote, Forbes 20 percent and Buchanan 19 percent. Alexander was fifth with 6 percent, trailing Sen. Phil Gramm, who dropped out of the race two weeks ago but was on North Dakota's mail-in ballots.
Buchanan spent the most time in Arizona, appealing to conservatives with his hard lines against abortion and illegal immigration, a vow to make English the nation's official language and a promise to renegotiate NAFTA and GATT world trade deals, that he said were to blame for fewer jobs and lower wages at home. His blunt talk wore well in the crusty, anti-establishment West, and won him some converts in the Dakota, too.
Dole needed to prove New Hampshire was not the beginning of the end for his campaign, as was the case when he ran in 1988. He also was in danger of hitting the primary spending limit, increasing pressure on him to quickly turn the race back in his favor.
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