UNIVERSITY DAILY KANSAN
Monday, February 12, 1996
7A
Dole appears strong in Iowa
By John King The Associated Press
DES MOINES, Iowa — For a presidential campaign with a fragile front-runner and a cluttered pack of challengers, today's Iowa caucuses are the threshold to credibility. The results could bring clarity to a contentious Republican race.
This had been Iowa's role since Jimmy Carter made the state's
precinct caucuses a major event 20 years ago. But given this year's compressed primary calendar — 70 percent of GOP convention delegates will be picked in the next five weeks — Iowa
Bob Dole
gets an even bigger say in shaping the nomination chase.
It wasn't supposed to be this way. Six months ago, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole was the overwhelming favorite here, and New Hampshire loomed as the first competitive battle. But when Dole stumbled into a tie in an Iowa straw poll in August, his rivals sensed an opening. Iowa suddenly became a make-or-break battleground.
The stakes are highest for the
front-runner. Dole barely has that distinction. His Iowa lead has stabilized, but polls suggest support below the 37 percent he won here in 1988. Dole is in a neck-and-neck race in New Hampshire with the phenomenon of the 1996 contest — multimillionaire publisher Steve Forbes.
Dole rejects 37 percent as his credibility threshold. Even though he got that number against a sitting vice
"I think just being able to hold our lead in the face of that shows strength," Dole said.
Steve Forbes
Rivals disagree. Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander predicted that Iowa would show a weakened Dole. Charles Black, chief strategist for Texas Sen. Phil Gramm's campaign, said that Dole was a weak front-runner.
Second place is a coveted trophy if Dole wins
A week ago, Forbes looked destined for second, but he has slipped and now is clumped in an unpredictable race for second or third with commentator Pat Buchanan, Alexander and Gramm.
Forbes is paying the price of success. His rise made him as much a target as Dole. Other candidates labeled his flat tax plan bad for the middle class and suggested Forbes was more liberal on social policy than he seemed. Polls also suggest a voter backlash against negative advertising.
This has put Forbes to the test be-fore the voting. He has complained that Dole and others used negative tactics against him, evoking disbelief from those on the receiving end of Forbes' attack ads.
Phil Gramm
Alexander has benefited from Forbes's slip. But he is short of campaign cash and will be hard-pressed to raise more, if he doesn't come in as a second or a strong third. He vowed to go on regardless.
Gramm talked of quitting if things went sour in Iowa. He has lost economic conservative support to Forbes and social conservative backing to Buchanan, who stunned Gramm last week in Louisiana caucuses.
Gramm now vows to go to New Hampshire regardless of Iowa results but, like Alexander, will find the going tough if he is fourth or worse.
He predicted that his Iowa organization would spring a Monday surprise.
Buchanan wasn't expecting much from Iowa, but now he has growing support among Christian conservatives.
"There is only one conservative left in this race who can beat Bob Dole." Buchanan said.
The Iowa outcome will shape the sprint to New Hampshire. The anti-tax electorate in New Hampshire is a lot different from Iowa, where social conservatives dominate the GOP.
A Dole-Forbes race would pit the veteran politician with experience and leadership against the newcomer who rails against Washington insiders. A Buchanan surge, however, could provoke a debate about who is most committed to cultural conservatism and a fight about his protectionist trade views.
The late polling suggests that a Dole victory, with everyone else bunched together behind him is possible. but Dole doesn't expect that.
"Somebody will come in second," he said. "And the people of New Hampshire are going to have to make an important decision."
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